Euro 2024 continues on Tuesday, July 2 as we finish up the round of 16.
Like World Cup 2022, I'll have projections for every game, along with analysis and any potential bets that result from showing projection value.
My projections simulate each game 250,000 times and are powered by my colleague BJ Cunningham's offensive and defensive power ratings for each team. Using his power ratings, I use something called diagonal-inflated bivariate poisson to simulate the scoring distribution for each game.
Let’s dive into my Euro 2024 match projections for Sunday's Romania – Netherlands and Austria – Turkey games.
Tuesday Euro Match Projections
Romania – Netherlands, 12 p.m. ET
Netherlands are 65.9% favorites to win in 90 minutes and 78.7% to advance. The Dutch barely outplayed Poland and lost the xG battle to France, while coming in relatively in line with their expectations against Austria in terms of xG despite the unlucky 3-2 scoreline.
Overall, that means they have under-performed, causing their power ratings to drop. Meanwhile, Romania outperformed expectations against both Ukraine and Slovakia while falling relatively in line with expectations against Belgium.
That means overall they have over-performed, causing their power ratings to improve.
As a result of all that, I'm showing value on Romania to advance, however I'm going to pass as I think Ukraine were much weaker than our pre-tournament power ratings show, so I believe the projection value on Romania is a bit artificial.
Austria – Turkey, 3 p.m. ET
The most likely outcome is Austria winning in 90 minutes (46.6%), and the Austrians are favored to advance at 59.4%.However, there is value on Turkey given Austria have been quite lucky to have a goal difference of +2 compared to -1.6 expected from their three group games.
The projections also expect this game to potentially be a shootout. These teams have combined for a 3.12 xG average in their six games. By combining a Turkey win with a shootout, there's value on some higher correct score combinations.
Picks: Over 2.5 (1.05u, -105 via BetRivers), Turkey ML (0.25u, +330 via FanDuel), Turkey 3-2, 4-2 or 5-2 (o.1u, +3000 via FanDuel)
Note: if you have Austria futures, either just bet the over or consider sprinkling Turkey to advance as a small +EV hedge.
