RB Leipzig vs. Bayern Munich Odds
| Leipzig Odds | +280 |
| Bayern Odds | -125 |
| Draw | +310 |
| Over/Under | 3.5 (+102 / -124) |
| Both Teams to Score (Yes/No) | (-260 / +196) |
| Odds via PointsBet. Get up to the minute soccer odds here. | |
The Bundesliga hasn't had a match since Nov. 13 because of the World Cup and the holiday break. Bayern had just reclaimed the top spot in the table prior to the break and now they'll face a difficult test in their first competitive match in months when they visit Leipzig on Friday.
Bayern lost goalkeeper Manuel Neuer for the season after a skiing accident led to a leg injury on holiday. They turned to Borussia Monchengladbach and added goalkeeper Yann Sommer for the remainder of the season.
The World Cup break came at a terrible time for RB Leipzig, who were in excellent form under manager Marco Rose. They have 11 wins and two draws and are unbeaten in their last 13 matches. Christopher Nkunku is headed to Chelsea in the summer, but he has a real chance at the Bundesliga golden boot this year.
Sitting just six points behind Bayern in the table, Leipzig have an outside chance of challenging for the title if they get a result in this match.
RB Leipzig Come in With Interrupted Form
Leipzig opted to stick with Domenico Tedesco at manager to begin this season despite unclear evidence that he had actually improved them in the second half of last season. Once Tedesco's side won just one of its first five matches in the Bundesliga and lost its Champions League opener, they brought in former Gladbach and Dortmund manager Marco Rose to replace Tedesco.
Rose had Gladbach in the Champions League in consecutive seasons and is one of the top managers in the German top flight. He's improved Leipzig considerably in his time there by slowing the game down and becoming a more possession-based and intricate passing team.
Leipzig had a +0.4 xG difference per 90 in the first five league matches under Tedesco and finished last season +0.7 xG difference per 90 under him. Since Rose joined the club, Leipzig are almost at Bayern levels of production and underlying numbers. They have a +1.14 xG difference per match with 2.26 xGF per match. Both are clearly second in the division.
Leipzig aren't without their injuries for this match though. Die Roten Bullen will not have Nkunku, Timo Werner or goalkeeper Peter Gulacsi, all out to injury. The first choice backline and midfield will be available for them though, including Mohamed Simakan and World Cup standout Josko Gvardiol.
Bayern Munich Dealing With Lineup Changes
Like Leipzig, Bayern are dealing with some injuries of their own and had to address them in the January transfer window. Bayern lost first choice left back Theo Hernandez and are replacing him with Daley Blind. Blind may or may not start on Friday but they're definitely losing some athleticism and defensive ability with Hernandez's absence. Even if Blind offers more passing range and is an elite deep-lying play maker, he's considerably older.
The loss of Neuer means that Sven Ulreich or Yann Sommer will start in goal. Neither are as good in the sweeper role and given Bayern's extremely high defensive line, there could be some vulnerabilities in the back. Sadio Mané remains injured from the World Cup and that does limit some of the bench depth behind expected starters Serge Gnabry and Kingsley Coman.
Bayern have a ton of attacking depth so they can fade the loss of Mané, but he was the focal point of the attacking unit since the departure of Robert Lewandowski. Gnabry, Coman and Leroy Sané are more than capable as wide forwards, but none are particularly comfortable or experienced at occupying the more central positions in the attack.
It's reasonable to expect Bayern's attack could struggle to breakdown a settled Leipzig defense because of this. We saw Bayern struggle early in the season to put teams away and not finish as efficiently because of variance and the lack of a central striker.
RB Leipzig vs. Bayern Munich Pick
Bayern come into this match with their lofty power rating. Their dominance over the Bundesliga is so great that the market has them at 54% implied to win on the road against the second-best team in the league.
But there are some question marks about Bayern in this match. Big favorites tend to be vulnerable in the first match or two of the season, and the layoff between matches is essentially like a new season beginning on Friday.
Bayern have key injuries in defense and in goal and Julian Nagelsmann has to shuffle through his attackers to see who will occupy the central striker role in this match. Leipzig have taken a massive step forward under Rose and my projections make Bayern +110 to win this match.
I'd bet Leipzig +0.5 at -105 or better. Even though Bayern have largely dominated this head to head, they're vulnerable in this spot.
Pick: RB Leipzig +0.5 (-105 or better)
