Feyenoord vs Lazio Odds
| Feyenoord Odds | -110 |
| Lazio Odds | +260 |
| Draw | +300 |
| Over / Under | 2.5 -143 / +110 |
Group E has been filled with late drama in the first two match weeks of the Champions League. Lazio goalkeeper Ivan Provodel scored a stoppage time equalizer with the last touch of the game to draw Atlético Madrid, and then Lazio found a last minute winner to win at Celtic in match week two. As a result, Lazio and Atlético Madrid enter match week three tied atop the group with four points.
Feyenoord have produced the best underlying numbers thus far in the group and the Dutch side sits just one point behind the leaders on three points after a haywire 3-2 defeat in Madrid last round. Lazio make a trip to Rotterdam on Wednesday for the first of two head-to-head matchup between the two clubs. Lazio came in as the second-favorite to advance ahead of Arne Slot's Feyenoord, but Feyenoord are getting key forward Santiago Gimenez back just in time for the two most important matches of their group stage.
These two sides have recent history in the Europa League, after they were paired with one another in Europe's secondary competition. Lazio won 4-2 in the home fixture despite relatively even expected goals numbers, and Feyenoord won the home fixture, 1-0, with a solid defensive showing. The Italian side has shown nothing in its Serie A form to suggest it's any improved from last year, and Feyenoord should be more of a favorite at home on Wednesday.
Let's get into Feyenoord vs Lazio.
Feyenoord
Even despite the suspension of Gimenez for the first two matches of the Champions League, Slot's squad put up impressive shot and goal numbers against Celtic and Atlético Madrid. There was some help in the Celtic match from red cards in the second half, but Feyenoord went to Madrid and outshot Atlético 17-7. They created 2.4 xG and while Atlético won the match 3-2 by being more clinical and having Jan Oblak, Feyenoord completely dominated the underlying box score.
Final touches in the penalty area was 31-11 Feyenoord. They completed 14 passes into the Atletico penalty area, which is unheard of against a Diego Simeone side. Gimenez picked up a minor knock in the league win over the weekend, but Slot said on Monday that he's in contention to start. Even if he's only available in a bench role, he's producing at a 1.12 xG per 90 rate in the Dutch top flight. When you add Gimenez back into the fold, this attack becomes all the more explosive.
Feyenoord isn't without their injuries in this matchup as captain and defender Gernot Trauner is expected to miss alongside winger Luka Ivanusec. Their underlying numbers in the Netherlands continue to impress. They went to Ajax and won 4-0, out-creating the Amsterdam side 2.5-0.3 despite extreme circumstances that saw the match abandoned in the middle and resumed days later. They produced 65.6 xGF in 34 matches last season (1.92 per match). Through the early portion of the new year, Feyenoord have created 26.5 xGF in the first nine matches of the year.
The primary difference is that Gimenez has leveled up. He went from 0.69 xG per match last year in his age 21 season to 1.12 this year. There's probably some regression coming for his leap to be that big, but he's entering his prime at age 22 and seems to only be improving. When you compare that to the uncertain striker situation at Lazio, there's a big difference in attacking firepower here.
Lazio
Lazio have posted two of their best underlying performances of the season in consecutive weeks. The Sky Blues beat Atalanta 3-2 at home in Serie A and then returned from the international break with a controlled 2-0 victory away at Sassuolo. In those two matches, Lazio created 3.9 xGF and allowed just 1.5 xGA. They've found some form, but it's important to not lose sight of the bigger picture with Mauricio Sarri's side. They played even with Atletico Madrid at home and Celtic away in the CL and stole results late in both matches. In Serie A, Lazio have the worst xG difference per 90 when compared to the last two years of the club's performances.
2021-22 xGD per 90: +0.20
2022-23 xGD per 90: +0.26
2023-24 xGD per 90: -0.03
There's some schedule adjustments to be made to these numbers as Lazio have played a relatively tough schedule. But there's no signs at all that Lazio has improved and it's more likely they are worse than last year. This was the oldest roster in Serie A last season.
Not only is Lazio putting up worse performances in the aggregate, but they are no longer consistently outperforming those metrics. Ciro Immobile has been in and out of the lineup with injury most of the year. Immobile is aging out and his replacement, Taty Castellanos, has produced solid underlying performances in his results thus far. He's averaged 0.49 xG per match in his first 3.3 90s for the club, and he's north of three shots per 90.
Luis Alberto is still a quality creator in the attacking midfield, but Feyenoord's aggressive pressing system can take time away from him that he's used to getting in Serie A because there's considerably less pressing in Italy these days. The absence of Sergej Milinkovic-Savic is evident in the progressive passing numbers and xA production.
Lazio vs Feyenoord
Prediction
Feyenoord are one of the most underrated teams in this entire competition in my view. Given the looming regression for a looming Lazio squad, not even the emergence of Castellanos to bolster the attack can save Sarri's side. They rank 11th in NPxG per match and 12th in shots with mediocre box entry numbers. Unless they are extremely efficient with their opportunities on the break, Feyenoord have a lot more consistency and ball progression.
I'd bet Feyenoord at -120 or better.
