Sportsbooks give out lots of money to new customers, but they'll also throw a bone to existing customers through odds boosts and other bonuses.
Being in New Jersey, I've taken advantage of pretty much every sign-up bonus available. So all I have left are bonuses and odds boosts for existing users.
Most of these odds boosts are pretty terrible, mathematically speaking. Going from +770 to +800 doesn't make that much of a difference in probability and won't provide you any edge.
But some of these boosts are advantageous. I'll be trying to find those at books like FanDuel, DraftKings, Caesars and more.
The math doesn't need to be overly complicated. We can use prices that sportsbooks are already offering to figure out what the true, juice-free line is, and use our expected value calculator to find the advantage. Simply plug in the juice-free probability, the boosted line and you'll get the expected value.
This will be a running file that I'll continue adding bets to, and I'll be tracking results in this spreadsheet.
Let's hunt!
| Record | Total Winnings | ROI |
|---|---|---|
| 4-1 | $256.50 | 128.2% |
Record updated Friday, Jan. 21
Thursday, Jan. 20
1. Avs, Knights, Kraken All Win
- Sportsbook: FanDuel
- The Bet: Avalanche, Knights, Kraken moneylines
- True line: +314
- FanDuel line: +380
- EV: 15.9%
- Max Bet: Not listed
- Result: Win
The Avs and Golden Knights are both big favorites on Thursday night, while the Kraken are a short home favorite over the lowly Sharks.
The true price on this is +314 using Pinnacle's lines, and FanDuel is offering +380. That's good for nearly 16% EV.
Wednesday, Jan. 19
1. Murray & Tsitsipas in straight sets
- Sportsbook: FanDuel
- The Bet: Andy Murray & Stefanos Tsitsipas both win 3-0
- True line: +316
- FanDuel line: +400
- EV: 20%
- Max Bet: Not listed
- Result: Loss
Another day, another tennis boost.
FanDuel is offering Andy Murray and Stefanos Tsitsipas to both win in straight sets at +400.
Pinnacle's true price is +316 when you remove the juice and parlay Murray -2.5 (+149) and Tsitsipas -2.5 (-149) together.
That means the +400 offered at FanDuel gives us 20% expected value — 20 cents for every dollar wagered.
Murray is an underdog to win in straight sets so it's far from a guarantee, but it's very much a +EV play.
Tuesday, Jan. 18
1. Nadal & Zverev in straight sets
- Sportsbook: Barstool
- The Bet: Rafael Nadal And Alexander Zverev both win 3-0
- True line: +111
- Barstool line: +125
- EV: 7%
- Max Bet: Not listed
- Result: Win
Rafael Nadal And Alexander Zverev are both huge favorites to win their Australian Open matches overnight Tuesday, and the probability they win in straight sets is pretty high, too.
After removing the juice from Barstool's odds for each player at -2.5 sets, we get:
- Nadal -2.5 sets (-258)
- Zverev -2.5 sets (-191)
Parlay those together and we get a probability of 47.39%, or +111.
Barstool is offering +125 on this boost. If our line is +111, that's good for an expected value of 7% — 7 cents on every dollar wagered.
2. Knicks spread the love on Thursday (NY only)
- Sportsbook: FanDuel
- The Bet: Knicks line moves 1 point for every 500 bettors
- Current line: Knicks +110.5 (and climbing)
- Real line: TBD
- EV: TBD
- Max Bet: $50
- Result: Win
These are no-brainer bets at FanDuel and DraftKings. In New York, FanDuel will move the line 1 point for every 500 bettors that take the Knicks on Thursday against the Pelicans. The line is already up to Knicks +9.5 and we're still two days from the game.
And these are no brainers because you get the line no matter when you bet it. So if you take it when the Knicks were +9.5 and it ends at +20.5, you get the +20.5.
It's in a single state so I wouldn't expect it to close at Knicks +60 or anything crazy, but no matter what, you're getting plenty of expected value.
Update: I was incredibly wrong about this promo getting to +60. It's already at +110.5, 48 hours before the game. Assuming everyone bet $50, that's already a $25 million promo for FanDuel.
Saturday, Jan. 15
1. Josh Allen & Bills Win
- Sportsbook: Caesars
- The Bet: Josh Allen 199.5 passing yards and Bills win
- True line: +104
- Caesars line: +125
- EV: 9%
- Max Bet: $25
- Result: Win
FanDuel lists Allen over 199.5 yards at -320, and the Bills are anywhere from -220 to -230. However, the juice-free lines are much lower and that's what we need to use here.
Parlay the juice-free lines together you're getting +104 and Caesars is giving us +125. That's 9% expected value. So for every dollar wagered, you can expect to profit 9 cents in the long run.
The important thing to remember is that when you're getting a big edge through a boost, it doesn't matter if you "like" the Bills or Patriots. The math is in your favor and over a big enough sample size, you'll make money.
2. DraftKings: Hammer the Over
- Sportsbook: DraftKings
- The Bet: Bills-Pats over 18.5
- True line: -8,000
- DK line: -110
- EV: 86%
- Max Bet: $25
- Result: Win
There's been some chatter on Twitter about DraftKings limiting folks on this bet, even below the $25 max bet they said they'll allow. So see what you can get down.
DK is dropping the Bills-Pats total half a point for every 5,000 bettors and as of Saturday morning, it's dropped to 18.5.
Based on FanDuel's alternate totals, it has about a 97.5% chance of hitting, and you're getting -110. That's 86% EV. I expect the total will drop even lower throughout the day.
Even if DK limits you to $5, it's as close to a free $5 as you can get.
