Update: Anthony Hopkins won the Academy Award for Best Actor for his performance in The Father.
Best Actor Nominees & Odds
| Nominee | Odds | Implied Prob. |
|---|---|---|
| Chadwick Boseman (Ma Rainey's Black Bottom) | -1667 | 94.3% |
| Anthony Hopkins (The Father) | +700 | 12.5% |
| Riz Ahmed (The Sound of Metal) | +1400 | 6.7% |
| Steven Yeun (Minari) | +2500 | 3.9% |
| Gary Oldman (Mank) | +3300 | 2.9% |
| Odds as of April 24 and via DraftKings. | ||
Best Actor Predictions
Anthony Hopkins +700
Collin Whitchurch: It's tough to imagine any award where the favorite is -1667 could have some intrigue, and while the award is almost certainly going to Chadwick Boseman, there's at least a puncher's chance for Anthony Hopkins (who actually deserves to win the award).
Boseman, as you know, sadly died from colon cancer in August. He would be just the third posthumous acting award recipient after Heath Ledger in 2009 and Peter Finch in 1977. Back in November, you could've gotten Boseman at +850 (worse odds than both Hopkins and Gary Oldman), and he's seen these odds go as high as -3500 in early March.
It was presumed a foregone conclusion for Boseman for most of the last several months, with the intrigue around Hopkins coming via his Best Actor win at the BAFTAs earlier this month. The BAFTAs don't have the predictive success of the Screen Actors Guild — BAFTAs: 13 of the last 20; SAG: 15 of the last 20 — but the BAFTAs have been correct in each of the last six years, where the SAGs were wrong in 2016, when they awarded Denzel Washington for Fences and the Academy went with Casey Affleck for Manchester by the Sea.
Again, it's entirely likely that Boseman wins this award, and it will likely lead to the most emotional moment of the night for whomever — presumably his widow, Taylor Simone Ledward — accepts the award on his behalf. But at +700, Hopkins is worth a flier. I'll be throwing down a small amount and hoping for what would be a deserved upset.
Anthony Hopkins +700
Collin Wilson: There will be plenty of sentiment for Chadwick Boseman after his untimely passing this past year.
Famous for playing Black Panther, Boseman is the seventh actor with a posthumous nomination. Only Peter Finch for Network in 1976 and Heath Ledger for The Dark Knight in 2009 have won the Academy Award in their respective categories.
That said, there is a clearcut front-runner within the underdogs.
When looking for Best Actor, the BAFTA's must be taken into account. Not just the winner, but especially if the winner is British in a British film. Sir Anthony Hopkins is British while The Father was a co-production of British and French. Per OSCARmetrics, a British Actor in a British film give the Best Actor winning odds of 43%. That is a giant probability edge against the current odds and is deserving of a wager.
