Brentford vs West Ham Odds
| Brentford Odds | +105 |
| West Ham Odds | +260 |
| Draw | +260 |
| Over / Under | 2.5 -143 / +110 |
West Ham picked up a victory in the EFL Cup at home against Arsenal on Wednesday, but the Hammers will now play their fourth match in 10 days on Saturday when they travel across London to face Brentford. They lost in Greece in the Europa League group stage, then followed it up with a flat offensive performance at home against Everton in a 1-0 loss.
Not only do Brentford have the rest advantage, but the Bees have a personnel advantage too. West Ham will be without Edson Alvarez and Lucas Paqueta due to yellow card accumulation suspensions. The market has moved solidly toward Brentford from the +125 moneyline lookahead before the yellow cards, but the market may not have moved far enough toward the Bees on Saturday.
Here is how my Brentford vs West Ham prediction looks for the weekend.
Brentford
You won't find a more textbook Brentford performance than their win against Chelsea at Stamford Bridge last week. Brentford could barely get out of their own half in the opening 45 minutes, but that resulted in just one clear scoring opportunity for the Blues because of their generally excellent penalty area defense.
As the game progressed, Brentford found more and more forays forward. Chelsea lost Ethan Pinnock, who popped up at the back post to score and give the Bees the lead. Chelsea overcommitted in stoppage time, Brentford tapped in the second on the break and won the match, 2-0. Brentford and West Ham are both possession averse teams who defend without the ball, but the Bees are considerably better at stopping the ball, preventing box entries and conceding few big scoring chances.
Brentford also have a clear set piece advantage in this game. West Ham's attacking set pieces remain solid, but the defensive set piece data is alarming. The Bees are good and efficient at both ends of the set piece game. They are third in xG per set piece, while the Hammers are 18th in xG per set piece allowed.
Given that Brentford don't get a lot of shot volume, the set pieces are the key difference here. The Bees don't generate a ton of high turnovers, press high or tilt the field on their opponents. Even still, they outrank West Ham in these metrics. The Hammers are 19th in field tilt and that will make it very difficult for West Ham to play its way back into the match if they do go down a goal.
West Ham
The Hammers' attack without Paqueta is still heavily reliant on central striker Michail Antonio, and his numbers are in stark decline. He had that vintage performance against Brighton in match week 3, but his season-long numbers suggest he’s really showing his age.
The 33-year-old forward is producing 0.13 xG per match and that’s just not enough to overcome how conservative David Moyes wants to be with committing numbers forward. West Ham sold Gianluca Scamacca to Atalanta in the offseason and didn't really address the position otherwise. Jarrod Bowen still posts quality wide forward numbers, but the central production is way down.
Antonio produced 0.9 xG in two matches (and both of his goals) against Brighton and Chelsea. Since then, he's attempted three total shots (0.2 xG) in seven matches.
The Hammers' defense held up pretty well in the 1-0 loss to Everton last Sunday, but that had more to do with Everton’s decision not to really attack once leading. West Ham are 18th in shots allowed, which is about normal for them. What isn’t normal is conceding big chances, lots of xGA (16th) and a ton of ball progression (20th in ball progression allowed). The lack of a true ball stopper in midfield is an issue and the center backs are getting exposed more as a result.
There's no real stats to clearly identify this, but the eye test does not grade out well for Kurt Zouma and Nayef Aguerd. Given West Ham's possession-averse approach generally, you need center backs who won't make individual errors often. That hasn't been the case for the pairing and only a red hot shot stopping start to the season for Alphonse Areola has bailed out the defense to this point.
Brentford vs West Ham
Prediction
The market suggests that these two teams are about even in true talent and performance. With Paqueta and Alvarez out, I don't agree with that market sentiment. The Bees had a rough patch of results in the early portion of the season, but their underlying DNA remains as solid as ever.
Brentford have a system they trust, and it's been proven to be undervalued by the market for years. The same used to be true for the Hammers in these kinds of spots, but the decline in defense has made that less true in the new season.
