Fulham vs Tottenham Odds
| Fulham Odds | +225 |
| Tottenham Odds | +110 |
| Draw | +275 |
| Over/Under | 2.5 (-150 / +120) |
| Both Teams to Score (Yes/No) | (-175 / +125) |
| Odds via bet365. Get the latest soccer odds here. | |
Tottenham collapsed on Thursday in Manchester as Spurs squandered a two-goal halftime lead against Manchester City and lost the match 4-2.
Spurs have been in poor form since returning from the World Cup break with a draw to Brentford, loss to Aston Villa and defeats to Arsenal and Manchester City in consecutive matches.
This could be considered an excellent buy-low opportunity for Spurs, who closed as -220 moneyline favorites in the home fixture and are now plus-money away from home.
Fulham lost 1-0 on the road at Newcastle in their last match eight days prior. Aleksandar Mitrovic missed a penalty and Newcastle grabbed a late winner.
The Cottagers have been the league's biggest overachievers at this point, especially from an attacking perspective. They benefitted from game state and penalties more than any other team too, and their attack remains a good fade going forward.
Let's dive into this fixture.
Fulham Out-Pacing Their Actual Level
The Cottagers sit in seventh in the Premier League but there is a ton of misleading data on the surface level. Fulham have been a clear bottom half team at this point in the season. Penalties, finishing variance and red cards have all put Fulham in a very rosy light when you look at their underlying numbers.
Fulham have been awarded seven penalties in the league this season, which is more than any other team. Opponents have committed five red card offenses against them, and no other club has had more than one against them.
If you take out all minutes where they were up a man and exclude penalties from the data, the result is a Fulham side with the worst defense in the Premier League. They've conceded 1.84 xG per 90 minutes in 11-on-11 game states. The attack has produced 1.17 xG per 90, which is just 12th in the league.
On the balance, only Bournemouth have worse numbers this season. It's an extreme game state and variance example but there's major regression looming for the Cottagers. They've been good on attacking set pieces and pretty poor at defending them.
Now facing Spurs, who are elite at both ends on set pieces, there could be issues on the margins of this matchup.
Tottenham in Dire Need of a Result
One underlying problem for Spurs on top of their stars aging has been injury issues. Dejan Kulusevski, Richarlison and the center backs have all dealt with problems coming back from the World Cup break. Now, Spurs have a clean bill of health on the entire group of players, so Antonio Conte can choose his preferred XI.
Heung-min Son's elite finishing over xG alongside Harry Kane plus Hugo Lloris' elite shot-stopping helped Tottenham consistently over-perform xG. But as Lloris is aging and out of form and Son is dribbling and shooting less, Spurs have had issues in both penalty areas this season.
They've committed a ton of errors that have led to shots and conceded a bunch of chances from high turnovers. Fulham are bottom-five in the league in pressing intensity though, so don't expect Spurs' ball progression issues to get exposed as much in this matchup.
Fulham also have some of the worst penalty area defending in the entire league, which could be the ideal get-right for Spurs after a run of tough fixtures recently.
Fulham vs. Tottenham Pick
This is the desperation spot to back Tottenham after a really poor week in the league. Spurs were outplayed by both Arsenal and City in consecutive matches, but the price is now too short on them on the road against a bottom five team in my power ratings.
Spurs went to Bournemouth before the World Cup and closed -140. Now they're +110 on the three-way moneyline against a Fulham team that could be in the relegation battle if the bounces hadn't all gone their way.
Even though I've found Spurs overvalued in the market for months, this is a cheap price and a good spot to fade Fulham.
Fulham have extra rest coming into this matchup, but the defense hasn't shown any signs of real improvement despite the previously mentioned game state advantages.
As long as you can find a plus-money price, Spurs have been much better than Fulham despite their ongoing regression from last season's highs.
Pick: Tottenham ML |
