Sheffield United vs. Wolves Odds
| Sheffield United Odds | +280 |
| Wolves Odds | +100 |
| Draw | +250 |
| Over / Under | 2.5 -106/-118 |
Sheffield United looks for their first win since promotion when they take on Wolves on Saturday at Bramall Lane.
Things are bad for Sheffield at the moment, as the Blades are sitting at the bottom of the table. Sheffield United has one draw and nine losses in their first 10 matches and are coming off a 5-0 loss to Arsenal. Time is running out on Paul Heckingbottom, so he needs points in a hurry if he wants to keep his job.
Meanwhile, Wolves have had a better start to the season than most expected and are sitting in 12th place. However, they were dealt a huge blow in their last match as Pedro Neto went off with an injury. With all that in mind, let's make a Sheffield United vs Wolves prediction.
Sheffield United
Sheffield United have had a historically bad start to the season and the underlying metrics are just as disappointing with a -1.59 xGD per 90 minutes.
Sheffield United want to play a deep lying low block, but they're not good enough in it to stop the top-level Premier League teams. When they were in the Championship, they pressed really effectively when they were out of possession to create transitional opportunities since they weren't a team that held a lot of possession. Sheffield United was top five in forced high turnovers in the Championship, but it's pretty clear that if they try to press the way they did in the Championship, they're going to get exposed.
So, since the 3-5-2 wasn't working, Heckingbottom went to a more traditional 4-4-2 against Manchester United and Arsenal. That was a little more successful as they held both Big Six clubs under two non-penalty expected goals. I know that's a very low bar, but it is improvement for Sheffield United after losing 8-0 to Newcastle.
Sheffield United need to be more of a threat in their transition opportunities. A 4-4-2 set up should give the Blades a more structured, simplistic way to attack in transition.
Wolves
Wolves had improved much more than anybody thought coming into the season and a lot of the credit goes to manager Gary O'Neill. However, Neto also deserves a lot of credit.
Unfortunately, Neto went off with a hamstring injury against Newcastle and is going to miss this match. You could make the argument that he is the most important player to his team in the Premier League as he's been really the only one supplying the Wolves' attack.
Even with Neto in the lineup, the Wolves' attack really wasn't that threatening. They were only averaging 1.31 npxG per 90 minutes, which is 13th in the Premier League. They received a lot of those chances because they were playing teams that allowed them transitional opportunities, which gave Neto space to thrive. Sheffield United isn't going to allow Wolves to have those transitional opportunities and is going to force them to break down their low block, which I'm not sure Wolves are capable of doing without Neto.
Sheffield United vs Wolves
Prediction
I think the market is tad inflated on Wolves.
Wolves have benefited from creating chances in transition, which has been a staple of O'Neill's ever since he took over at Bournemouth. However, I don't trust Wolves ability to break down a 4-4-2 low block, even if Sheffield United hasn't been that effective in it this season.
Sheffield United has underperformed their expected metrics by about six goals, so they are due for some positive regression.
As ugly as it is, I think there is value on Sheffield United +0.5 (-113), in what will be Heckingbottom's best chance to get points to save his job.
