Tottenham vs. Manchester City Odds
Tottenham Odds | +333 |
Man City Odds | -134 |
| Draw | +300 |
| Over/Under | 2.5 (-138 / +110) |
| Both Teams to Score (Yes/No) | (-150 / +110) |
| Odds via bet365. Get the latest soccer odds here. | |
A busy weekend in the Premier League concludes on Sunday with the highlight match of the weekend, as Manchester City visit North London to take on Tottenham. This building has been a house of horrors for Manchester City, as Spurs have won all four meetings here since Spurs opened the stadium in 2019.
These two sides met in early January in Manchester, and City recovered from a 2-0 halftime deficit to beat Spurs 4-2. The game had little in it in the first 40 minutes with few chances at either end, until Ederson's poor pass out of goal led to an easy goal-scoring opportunity for Spurs.
Tottenham weren't able to hold the lead, nor were they able to produce any clear scoring chances in the second half of the match. With Spurs attack struggling of late and City's numbers not as dominant as years past, the total is a bit inflated here.
Let's take a look at why that's the case in Man City vs. Tottenham.
Tottenham Have Defensive Structure to Frustrate City
Spurs found their winning form again with a 1-0 victory on the road at Fulham prior to the FA Cup weekend, but it was another uninspiring attacking performance for Antonio Conte's side.
Despite facing one of the league's worst defenses, Spurs produced less than 1 xG in the match and only scored because of one moment of individual Harry Kane brilliance.
The game state from that loss to Manchester City the match prior makes it difficult to contextualize Spurs' performance. They were very effective at preventing City from breaking them down in the first half, when City produced zero big scoring chances and just 0.4 xG. None of City's chances had an xG value higher than 0.1.
That's the Tottenham way when they're defending against better sides and an approach that is pretty effective for this group. Spurs will concede space and possession in the final third, but their individual defending in the penalty area remains excellent. Spurs are a top six defense in terms of xGA and a lot of that accumulates on low-quality shots from outside the penalty area.
Tottenham have conceded the third-fewest big scoring chances in the league and are first in xG allowed per set piece. City shouldn't be able to easily break them down at home, and I'm also skeptical of their transitional success given their recent poor displays in attack post-World Cup.
Man City Producing Less Without Market Reaction
City aren't producing at past levels but the market still thinks they are given this total on Sunday.
Pep Guardiola's side is generating fewer shots per 90, a lower xG per shot and a longer average shot distance than last season. There is lot of potential reasons why this may be the case, as The Athletic's John Muller wrote about.
However, the end result is that the Cityzens have dropped from 2.54 xG per match last season down to 2.06 this season.
Despite adding Erling Haaland, City's attack is producing less. This was true against Wolves in the last league match, when City did very little to create their own offense outside of a Wolves back pass and a penalty. They totaled just five shots in an FA Cup win against Arsenal at home despite the Gunners resting some key starters.
Tottenham's biggest issue defensively this season has been poor passing out from the back leading to miscues and chances for the opponent. Yet, Manchester City are pressing less this year and allowing opponents to complete more passes against them. Spurs will have their first choice defense and midfield healthy too, so I don't expect City to completely overwhelm Spurs on the road.
Tottenham vs. Man City Pick
Tottenham and Manchester City may have played a six-goal thriller last time out, but the way that game played out suggests that the second game won't be nearly as full of goals.
Both sides were remarkably efficient at taking their chances. Opportunities were largely gifted by the opponent and not necessarily earned. That's especially true for Spurs' first goal and City's final goal.
There were only 3.0 xG despite all of the miscues at City. Spurs should give a better defensive showing at home and the longer this game remains 0-0, the more the balance shifts toward a sturdy Spurs defense.
The three-way moneyline is priced about right for me, but my projections have 2.79 goals for this match. I'd play the under 3 at -130 or better on Sunday.
