Everybody loves a Cinderella.
One of the reasons we love March Madness so much is the thought of a Cinderella team making a run to the Sweet 16 and beyond. It is almost inevitable.
A double-digit seed has made it to the Sweet 16 in each of the last 15 tournaments. Going back to 1979, a double-digit seed has made the Sweet 16 in 40 of the last 44 years.
Action Network's predictive analysis expert Sean Koerner has created an algorithm to identify the chances of moving on for each of the 68 teams in the field.
We are going to utilize it to identify a Cinderella. Which double-digit seed has the best chance of making the Sweet 16 and beyond?
Seeds 10-12
No. 11 New Mexico
New Mexico is by far the most adored team based on the metrics. That goes for KenPom, Haslametrics and our own Sean Koerner.
Koerner gives New Mexico a 23.6% chance of making the Sweet 16. At current odds of +250, this gives the implied probability from FanDuel at about 28.5% odds.
That means these odds have a roughly 5% expected value. Meaning, in the long run, making these sorts of wagers will net you 5 cents per every dollar wagered.
In addition, Koerner gives the Lobos a 3.3% chance of making a deep run to the Final Four. FanDuel's odds of +1700 imply odds of 5.5% that New Mexico makes it that far, giving this 2.2% EV.
No. 10 Colorado
Colorado advancing is contingent on them winning the First Four game against Boise State. If the Buffaloes can get past Boise State, they will have a 19.9% chance of making the Sweet 16.
Before the game against Boise State, the Buffs have an 11% chance of making the Sweet 16.
At +730 odds to make the Sweet 16, that implies a roughly 12% chance to make the Sweet 16. They're not great odds right now, but should the Buffaloes get past Boise State tomorrow night, this would skyrocket in value.
Colorado is also +3500 to make the Final Four at FanDuel before the First Four game.
No. 10 Drake
Drake is another team that is beloved by the metrics. Koerner gives the Bulldogs a 16.8% chance of making the Sweet 16. Relative to their +570 odds at FanDuel, this gives this line about a 1.9% EV.
Koerner has Drake favored by 1-point over Washington State in the first round.
Seeds 13-16
No. 13 Samford
Samford has the best odds to make the Sweet 16 out of seeds 13-16. Samford has a 6.5% chance of making the Sweet 16 according to Koerner.
Samford is +1120 to make the Sweet 16 and +10000 to make the Final Four at FanDuel.
No. 13 Charleston
Charleston has similar odds to Samford. Koerner gives the Cougars a 5.9% chance of making the Sweet 16.
Charleston is +1300 to make the Sweet 16 and +15000 to make the Final Four at FanDuel.
