J.J. Spaun shot a 67 on Friday and holds a one-stroke lead (11-under) following the second round of the FedEx St. Jude Championship. Now, we look forward to Saturday's third round, which features plenty of prop angles to attack on PrizePicks.
Below, I give out my five PrizePicks flex plays for the third round of the 2022 FedEx St. Jude Championship. For those unfamiliar with flex plays in golf, different combinations of overs and unders generate different payouts.
Using the five plays below, getting five-of-five correct registers a 12.5x payout, four-of-five correct registers a 2x payout and three-of-five correct registers a 0.4x payout.
PrizePicks Plays
Cameron Smith: Round 3 Under 67 Strokes
To help us predict success at this course, let's look to the past. The previous winners at TPC Southwind have proven to excel in two metrics: SG: Tee-to-Green and Scrambling.
Over the past five years, each winner has finished inside the top six in each of those two categories. Enter Cameron Smith.
On TOUR this season, Smith ranks 24th in SG: Tee-to-Green and 83rd in Scrambling. Those metrics are good, but not great. However, Smith has been playing perhaps the sharpest golf of his career recently as he boasts three wins and seven top-15 finishes over his past 13 tournaments.
We have seen this strong play continue through the start of this tournament as Smith is T5 at 8-under par and has shot a 67 or lower in each of the first two rounds. I expect this trend to continue through the weekend as Smith ranks 10th amongst the remaining field in SG: Tee-to-Green and first in SG: Approach-the-Green.
I would not play this total any lower than 67.
Joohyung Kim: Round 3 Under 68 Strokes
The second golfer we are backing on Saturday is Joohyung Kim. After the first two rounds, Kim is T33 at 4-under par.
While Kim has only gone under this total once through the first two rounds, we should expect a better weekend for the up-and-coming star. Kim's putter is the one club in his bag that has failed him thus far as he ranks just 62nd in SG: Putting amongst the remaining field.
However, the rest of Kim's game has been excellent as he ranks seventh in SG: Off-the-Tee, 13th in SG: Tee-to-Green and second in Greens in Regulation percentage (GIR%). If he just gets a few more putts to fall on Saturday, Kim should be able to get under this total once again due to the strength of the rest of his game.
I would play this number down to 67.5.
J.T. Poston: Round 3 Under 68.5 Strokes
The last golfer we are backing Saturday is J.T. Poston. After the first two rounds, Poston is T33 at 4-under par.
While Poston has only gone under this total once through the first two rounds, I would not be shocked if his performance improves over the weekend. On TOUR this season, Poston ranks 51st in SG: Tee-to-Green and 19th in Scrambling.
Poston is playing the best golf of his career recently with four top-25 finishes over his past five tournaments, including his win at the John Deere Classic and his second-place finish at the Travelers Championship. TPC Southwind is a course Poston usually fares well at as he's averaged 68.56 strokes over his past nine rounds on the course.
I would not play this total lower than 68.5.
Xander Schauffele: Round 3 Over 67.5 Strokes
We are also fading a couple of golfers on Saturday, starting with Xander Schauffele, who is T33 at 4-under par after two rounds.
Schauffele has failed to break this total in either of the first two rounds, a trend I expect to continue over the weekend. I believe we are getting some name-recognition bias with this total, especially considering Schauffele's poor metrics thus far.
Amongst the remaining field, Schauffele ranks just 69th in SG: Approach-the-Green, 66th in SG: Tee-to-Green and 69th in GIR%. Schauffele's putting has kept him alive so far and if he starts to miss a few his score should take a dip.
Even if Schauffele's game does not get worse, I would be shocked if he sees improvement. Over his past six rounds at TPC Southwind, Schauffele has shot a 68 or higher each time.
I would play this number up to 68.
Sungjae Im: Round 3 Over 68 Strokes
The other golfer we are fading Saturday is Sungjae Im. After the first two rounds, Im is T60 at 2-under par.
This could be another situation where we are getting value due to name-recognition bias as Im has failed to shoot lower than 68 in each of the first two rounds. In fact, Im has only shot lower than 68 once over his past nine rounds at TPC Southwind.
It would be incredibly shocking if Im breaks this streak over the weekend, especially considering his performance thus far. Amongst the remaining field, Im ranks just 51st in SG: Around-the-Green, 63rd in SG: Approach-the-Green, 49th in SG: Tee-to-Green, 42nd in GIR% and 59th in Scrambling.
I would not play this total lower than 68.
