We got the best of the Eric Cole over Padraig Harrington line by up to 50 points at some books for Round 3. However, we failed to reap the benefits from the closing line value as the ager lost by a stroke.
You could take all the disappointments from those who read my articles and add them together, and it wouldn't surpass my annoyance during what has been the worst run I've found myself in since entering the written portion of this space in 2018.
As always, I will do my best to turn this ship around, but I don't want the negative run to take away from what has still been a profitable season.
Is it the 27 units we were up a handful of events ago? No. However, let's not forget the 10 units of profit still intact from the hot streak we experienced to begin 2024.
Remember, this is a marathon, not a sprint!
2024 Open Championship Round 4 Matchup Bet
Matthew Jordan (+155) Over Justin Thomas (DraftKings)
Gambling is about finding advantages over the implied probability. An actual 50/50 wager that gets marked at +155 will be exponentially better over the long run than a -300 wager that's supposed to hit 74% of the time.
Both project to yield a long-term profit, which is all we are trying to do with any bet. However, it is essential to keep in mind that a genuine coin-flip opportunity can be a better wager than something that hits at a rate 24% higher.
If I remove Thomas' second-round implosion in bad conditions, the math will push this closer to -105 for Thomas (51.22%). I realize making a bet with a sub-50% win probability is probably a slippery path after I just ranted about our cold streak over the past month, but this particular example is essential in seeking value as presents almost an identical edge to what we had on Saturday with Eric Cole -120 over Padraig Harrington.
I know that example resulted in a loss, but look at what the market did as it moved from -120 to -170 for that matchup. That's not to suggest that all movement is correct, but gaining closing line value when it matches your math is always positive because it means the books respect the action.
I expect the same to happen here, although a different result would be a nice change to create a little momentum to end the week.
