Mets vs. Brewers Odds & Betting Predictions - October 1, 2024

Mets at Brewers

9:32 pm • ESPN

New York Mets

2-1

8 - 4

Milwaukee Brewers

1-2

pitcher		team	era	w-l
F.Peralta			5.40	0-0
L.Severino			3.24	1-1

MatchupOpenSpreadTotalMoneyline
Mets 2-1	+1.5	+1.5-180	o7.5-102	+124
Brewers 1-2	u7.5	-1.5+150	u7.5-119	-148

Tuesday 9:32 p.m.

October 01, 2024

American Family FieldMilwaukee

MIL -120 (Live)

1.8u

NYM -120 (Live)

NYM +124 (Live)

2.48u

Bobbyfades

Over 7.5 (Live)-105

0.95u

Bobbyfades

MIL -1.5+150

🔑 Brewers -1.5 +150 (DraftKings) 3u No more messing around. 3u 🔨 time. Mets just played a double header and immediately had to travel to Milwaukee. The wheels are starting to fall off for Sevy and Peralta is a beast. Their offense has come alive too. Big money and sharp money on the brew crew. We get it ALL back and more here

NYM +125

1.25u

#ProSystem Fade the public in playoffs Overall: 160-123-0,57% (ROI:25%) Season:0-0-0, 0% (ROI: 0%)

Under 7.5-115

Read full writeup on X: https://x.com/PicksOffice Freddy Peralta's strong form (2.35 ERA last 3 starts) and dominance over the Mets (1 ER in 12 IP) combined with Milwaukee's elite bullpen (3.36 ERA) point to a low-scoring game. Severino’s struggles vs. Milwaukee (6 R in last start) are offset by their recent offensive slump. Under is 7-2-1 in last 10 matchups and 8-2 in Milwaukee’s playoff games. Expect limited runs.

Over 7.5-102

0.49u

Over 3.5 (F5)-138

0.36u

Under 7.5-120

@Zerillo

M.Vientos o1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs+112

1.12u

NYM +124

$1240.00

Under 7.5-115

Under 7.5-118

1.18u

Sura

Under 7.5-118

1.18u

NYM +120

1.8u

B.Turang To Record 1+ Stolen Bases Yes+174

0.05u

G.Mitchell To Record 1+ Stolen Bases Yes+320

0.05u

J.Chourio To Record 1+ Stolen Bases Yes+290

0.05u

W.Adames To Record 1+ Stolen Bases Yes+650

0.05u

W.Contreras To Record 1+ Stolen Bases Yes+1400

0.05u

J.Ortiz To Record 1+ Stolen Bases Yes+600

0.05u

Under 3.5 (F5)+110

NYM +120

1.2u

Avery

Under 7.5-120

1.2u

Sandy

Under 7.5-120

1.2u

Under 7.5-115

#ProSystem High scoring teams postseason Overall: 70-24-4,74% (ROI:43%) Season:0-0-0, 0% (ROI: 0%)

L.Severino u16.5 Outs-125

BetMGM

F.Lindor o1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs-120

Under 7.5-115

0.58u

Bet to -116

Over 7.5-105

Over 3.5 (F5)-135

0.74u

#ProSystem Overs with wind postseason (F5) Overall: 153-85-7,64% (ROI:26%)

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The Mets are 74-21 (.779) when allowing 4 or fewer runs this season -- 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .723.

Rhys Hoskins has struck out in 29% of PA's this season -- tied for sixth highest in MLB-- sixth Percentile. Reed Garrett has a strikeout rate of 34% this season -- tied for 11th highest among qualified RPs-- 95th Percentile.

29% of Brice Turang strikeouts have come on 95+ MPH fastballs this season -- 15th highest in MLB-- 89th Percentile. 45% of Luis Severino's strikeouts have come on 95+ MPH fastballs this season -- sixth highest among qualified SPs-- 91st Percentile.

Luis Severino has a strikeout rate of just 19% (53 SO in 277 PAs) when going through the lineup the second time in a game this season -- tied for 9th lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 23% -- 17th Percentile.

Freddy Peralta has a strike rate of just 58% (596/1,019) in two strike counts this season -- 3rd lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 65% -- fifth Percentile.

Luis Severino has thrown inside pitches 40% of the time (800/2,025) in non-two strike counts this season -- 3rd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 30% -- 96th Percentile.

No props found

MLB Public Betting

Brewers are 3-2 in their last 5 games.
Brewers are 3-2 in their last 5 games against the spread
Brewers are 43-38 in their road games against the spread
The totals have gone OVER in 1 of Brewers' last 5 games
The totals have gone OVER in 40 of Brewers' 81 last games at home

Against the Spread (ATS) History

	overall	home	away	favorite	underdog
Brewers	87-75	44-37	43-38	43-48	43-26
Mets	86-76	44-37	42-39	52-45	33-30

Over/Under History

	overall	home o/u	away o/u	favorite o/u	underdog o/u
Brewers	81-70-11	40-33-8	41-37-3	41-43-7	40-25-4
Mets	81-76-5	42-39	39-37-5	46-46-5	34-29

Straight-Up (ML) History

	overall	home	away	favorite	underdog
Brewers	1-2	47-34	46-35	54-37	38-31
Mets	7-6	46-35	43-38	60-37	28-35

date	opponent	score	spread	over/under	moneyline
Sep 29th	NYM	L 0-5	+1.5 L	U 8	NYM +120
Sep 28th	NYM	W 6-0	+1.5 W	U 8.5	MIL -115
Sep 28th	NYM	W 8-4	+1.5 W	O 7.5	MIL -103
Sep 26th	@PIT	W 5-2	-1.5 W	U 7.5	MIL -120
Sep 25th	@PIT	L 1-2	-1.5 L	U 8	PIT -159

Christian Yelich
OF
Yelich is out with back
Out
Brandon Woodruff
P
Woodruff is out with shoulder
Out
Robert Gasser
P
Gasser is out with elbow
Out

Paul Blackburn
P
Blackburn is out with hand
Out
Ronny Mauricio
IF
Mauricio is out with knee
Out
Christian Scott
P
Scott is out with elbow
Out

See more MLB Injuries

PITCHER	PC	IP	K	ER
RL.Severino, P	105	6	3	4
RJ.Butto, P	25	2	3	0
RR.Stanek, P	14	1	1	0

HITTERS	H-AB	R	RBI
1F.Lindor, SS	0-4	1	0
2J.Iglesias, 2B	1-5	1	1
2J.Iglesias, 3B	1-5	1	1
3B.Nimmo, LF	1-5	1	0
4M.Vientos, 3B	2-4	2	2
4L.Acuna, 2B	0-0	0	0
5P.Alonso, 1B	0-1	1	0
6J.Winker, DH	1-2	1	2
6J.Martinez, PH	1-2	0	2
6J.Martinez, DH	1-2	0	2
7S.Marte, RF	0-2	0	1
7H.Bader, CF	0-0	0	0
8T.Taylor, CF	1-4	1	0
8T.Taylor, RF	1-4	1	0
9F.Alvarez, C	0-4	0	0

PITCHER	PC	IP	K	ER
RF.Peralta, P	68	4	5	3
RJ.Payamps, P	14	0.2	0	3
LA.Ashby, P	18	0	0	2
RN.Mears, P	12	1.1	1	0
RA.Civale, P	35	3	2	0

HITTERS	H-AB	R	RBI
1B.Turang, 2B	3-5	2	0
2J.Chourio, LF	2-4	1	1
3W.Contreras, C	1-4	0	2
4G.Mitchell, CF	0-3	0	0
5W.Adames, SS	0-3	0	0
6J.Bauers, DH	1-4	0	0
7R.Hoskins, 1B	0-3	0	1
8S.Frelick, RF	1-4	1	0
9J.Ortiz, 3B	0-4	0	0