Mets vs. Brewers Odds & Betting Predictions - October 2, 2024

Mets at Brewers

11:38 pm • ESPN

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New York Mets

1-0

Milwaukee Brewers

0-1

pitcher		team	era	w-l
F.Montas			0.00	0-0
S.Manaea			0.00	0-0

MatchupOpenSpreadTotalMoneyline
Mets 1-0	-1.5	+1.5-205	o7.5-116	+100
Brewers 0-1	u7	-1.5+170	u7.5-103	-120

Wednesday 11:38 p.m.

October 02, 2024

American Family FieldMilwaukee

64°Fahrenheit

0%Rain

10Wind

Over 7.5-115

1.15u

NYM o3.5 Team Total-120

1.2u

MIL -110

Read full writeup on X: https://x.com/PicksOffice The Brewers are in a strong position with improved pitching and offense. Sean Manaea’s struggles with runners on base align with Milwaukee’s aggressive base running, having gone 16-for-16 in steals against the Mets. Offensively, the Brewers excel against left-handed pitching, hitting .253 overall. Montas, since his trade, has been dominant, with a 3.74 xFIP and 14.05 K/9 in September.

NYM -102

1.02u

NYM -102

1.02u

Sura

NYM -101

2.02u

F.Montas u4.5 Ks+115

0.5u

NYM -102

1.02u

Avery

NYM -105

1.05u

Johnny

MIL -114

1.14u

Sandy

MIL -114

1.14u

MIL -106

0.53u

MIL -110

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S.Manaea o1.5 BB-146

1.46u

Manaea’s strike rate (63%) plummets and walk rate (10%) jumps up on the road. He’s walked 2+ batters in 11/16 road starts. MIL is one of the more patient teams - 2nd lowest chase rate, and a 10.3% BB% vs lefties since AUG 1. With the Mets leading 1-0, and the bullpen still overused of late, I do expect Manaea to have a decent leash.

Under 7.5-115

#ProSystem High scoring teams postseason Overall: 71-25-4,74% (ROI:42%) Season:1-1-0,50% (ROI:-8%)

MIL -108

0.54u

Assuming Montas + Pen. Bet to -115

Featured Insight
Mets have a strikeout rate of 33% vs left-handed batters over the last two weeks -- highest in MLB. Brewers left-handed hitters have struck out 28% against RHP over the last two weeks -- tied for fifth highest in MLB.

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Featured Insight
The Brewers have allowed just 1.0 runs per game in close and late situations since last season -- lowest in MLB (213 games). The Mets have scored just 1.0 runs per game in close and late situations since last season -- third lowest in MLB (200 games).

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The Brewers are 36-27 (.571) when tied entering the 8th inning since the 2022 season -- 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .500.

Willy Adames is batting just .234 since last season -- tied for 10th worst in MLB-- ninth Percentile. Right handed batters are hitting just .212 (171-for-806) against Sean Manaea since last season -- 15th best among starting pitchers with at least 129 total IP-- 90th Percentile.

Rhys Hoskins has struck out in 29% of PA's this season -- tied for sixth highest in MLB-- sixth Percentile. Edwin Diaz has a strikeout rate of 39% this season -- second highest among qualified RPs-- 99th Percentile.

Left-handed hitters have a line drive rate of 31% (71/230) against Frankie Montas since last season -- 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 129 total IP; League Avg: 24% -- first Percentile.

Frankie Montas has allowed an OPS of 1.080 (58 PA's) in his last three starts -- 2nd highest in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: .639 -- second Percentile.

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MLB Public Betting

Brewers are 3-2 in their last 5 games.
Brewers are 3-2 in their last 5 games against the spread
Brewers are 43-38 in their road games against the spread
The totals have gone OVER in 1 of Brewers' last 5 games
The totals have gone OVER in 40 of Brewers' 81 last games at home

Against the Spread (ATS) History

	overall	home	away	favorite	underdog
Brewers	87-75	44-37	43-38	43-48	43-26
Mets	86-76	44-37	42-39	52-45	33-30

Over/Under History

	overall	home o/u	away o/u	favorite o/u	underdog o/u
Brewers	81-70-11	40-33-8	41-37-3	41-43-7	40-25-4
Mets	81-76-5	42-39	39-37-5	46-46-5	34-29

Straight-Up (ML) History

	overall	home	away	favorite	underdog
Brewers	93-69	47-34	46-35	54-37	38-31
Mets	89-73	46-35	43-38	60-37	28-35

date	opponent	score	spread	over/under	moneyline
Oct 1st	NYM	L 4-8	-1.5 L	O 7.5	NYM -148
Sep 29th	NYM	L 0-5	+1.5 L	U 8	NYM +120
Sep 28th	NYM	W 6-0	+1.5 W	U 8.5	MIL -115
Sep 28th	NYM	W 8-4	+1.5 W	O 7.5	MIL -103
Sep 26th	@PIT	W 5-2	-1.5 W	U 7.5	MIL -120

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Miley is out with elbow
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Yelich is out with back
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Woodruff is out with shoulder
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P
Gasser is out with elbow
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Paul Blackburn
P
Blackburn is out with hand
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Jeff McNeil
IF
McNeil is out with wrist
Out
Ronny Mauricio
IF
Mauricio is out with knee
Out
Christian Scott
P
Scott is out with elbow
Out
Kodai Senga
P
Senga is out with thigh
Out

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MatchupOverUnder
Mets 1-0	N/A	N/A
Brewers 0-1	N/A	N/A

Mets vs. Brewers Odds & Betting Predictions - October 2, 2024

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