Mets vs. Brewers Odds & Betting Predictions - October 2, 2024

Mets at Brewers

11:38 pm • ESPN

New York Mets

2-1

3 - 5

Milwaukee Brewers

1-2

pitcher		team	era	w-l
F.Montas			2.46	0-0
S.Manaea			4.74	2-1

MatchupOpenSpreadTotalMoneyline
Mets 2-1	-1.5	+1.5-198	o7.5-116	+112
Brewers 1-2	u7	-1.5+164	u7.5-104	-132

Wednesday 11:38 p.m.

October 02, 2024

American Family FieldMilwaukee

Under 7.5 (Live)-110

1.65u

NYM o3.5 Team Total-117

1.25u

Under 4 (F5)+120

NYM +0.5 (F5)-140

Over 4.5 (F5)+112

1.12u

#ProSystem Overs with wind postseason (F5) Overall: 154-87-7,64% (ROI:25%) Season:1-2-0,33% (ROI:-44%)

NYM +100 (F5)

NYM o3.5 Team Total-122

1.22u

NYM +110

#ProSystem Fade the public in playoffs Overall: 163-123-0,57% (ROI:26%) Season:3-0-0,100% (ROI:133%)

MIL -125

1.6u

MIL -130 (F5)

Shop lines. Bovada most juiced one

MIL -118

$847.46

Over 3.5 (F5)-166

0.6u

MIL -120

0.42u

F.Montas o4.5 Ks-132

0.5u

NYM +100

W.Contreras o1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs-105

F.Lindor o1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs-135

Over 7.5-115

W.Contreras o1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs-105

1.05u

NYM o3.5 Team Total-120

1.2u

F.Lindor o1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs-135

1.5u

MIL -110

0.91u

Read full writeup on X: https://x.com/PicksOffice The Brewers are in a strong position with improved pitching and offense. Sean Manaea’s struggles with runners on base align with Milwaukee’s aggressive base running, having gone 16-for-16 in steals against the Mets. Offensively, the Brewers excel against left-handed pitching, hitting .253 overall. Montas, since his trade, has been dominant, with a 3.74 xFIP and 14.05 K/9 in September.

NYM -102

1.02u

NYM -102

1.02u

Sura

NYM -101

2.02u

Under 0.5 (1st Inn)-130

1.3u

Draftkings

NYM -102

1.02u

Avery

NYM -105

1.05u

Johnny

MIL -114

Sandy

MIL -114

NYM -102

1.02u

Under 7.5-105

1.05u

MIL -110

0.91u

All Free analysis & VIP Picks can be found in the MoneylineSharps Discord. Link: https://discord.gg/zkcR4EnvbW

S.Manaea o1.5 BB-146

1.46u

Manaea’s strike rate (63%) plummets and walk rate (10%) jumps up on the road. He’s walked 2+ batters in 11/16 road starts. MIL is one of the more patient teams - 2nd lowest chase rate, and a 10.3% BB% vs lefties since AUG 1. With the Mets leading 1-0, and the bullpen still overused of late, I do expect Manaea to have a decent leash.

F.Montas o1.5 BB-125

Under 7.5-115

#ProSystem High scoring teams postseason Overall: 71-25-4,74% (ROI:42%) Season:1-1-0,50% (ROI:-8%)

MIL -108

0.5u

Assuming Montas + Pen. Bet to -115

Featured Insight
Mets have a strikeout rate of 33% vs left-handed batters over the last two weeks -- highest in MLB. Brewers left-handed hitters have struck out 28% against RHP over the last two weeks -- tied for fifth highest in MLB.

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Featured Insight
The Brewers have allowed just 1.0 runs per game in close and late situations since last season -- lowest in MLB (213 games). The Mets have scored just 1.0 runs per game in close and late situations since last season -- third lowest in MLB (200 games).

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The Brewers are 36-27 (.571) when tied entering the 8th inning since the 2022 season -- 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .500.

Willy Adames is batting just .234 since last season -- tied for 10th worst in MLB-- ninth Percentile. Right handed batters are hitting just .212 (171-for-806) against Sean Manaea since last season -- 15th best among starting pitchers with at least 129 total IP-- 90th Percentile.

Rhys Hoskins has struck out in 29% of PA's this season -- tied for sixth highest in MLB-- sixth Percentile. Edwin Diaz has a strikeout rate of 39% this season -- second highest among qualified RPs-- 99th Percentile.

Left-handed hitters have a line drive rate of 31% (71/230) against Frankie Montas since last season -- 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 129 total IP; League Avg: 24% -- first Percentile.

Frankie Montas has allowed an OPS of 1.080 (58 PA's) in his last three starts -- 2nd highest in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: .639 -- second Percentile.

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MLB Public Betting

Brewers are 3-2 in their last 5 games.
Brewers are 3-2 in their last 5 games against the spread
Brewers are 43-38 in their road games against the spread
The totals have gone OVER in 1 of Brewers' last 5 games
The totals have gone OVER in 40 of Brewers' 81 last games at home

Against the Spread (ATS) History

	overall	home	away	favorite	underdog
Brewers	87-75	44-37	43-38	43-48	43-26
Mets	86-76	44-37	42-39	52-45	33-30

Over/Under History

	overall	home o/u	away o/u	favorite o/u	underdog o/u
Brewers	81-70-11	40-33-8	41-37-3	41-43-7	40-25-4
Mets	81-76-5	42-39	39-37-5	46-46-5	34-29

Straight-Up (ML) History

	overall	home	away	favorite	underdog
Brewers	1-2	47-34	46-35	54-37	38-31
Mets	7-6	46-35	43-38	60-37	28-35

date	opponent	score	spread	over/under	moneyline
Oct 1st	NYM	L 4-8	-1.5 L	O 7.5	NYM -148
Sep 29th	NYM	L 0-5	+1.5 L	U 8	NYM +120
Sep 28th	NYM	W 6-0	+1.5 W	U 8.5	MIL -115
Sep 28th	NYM	W 8-4	+1.5 W	O 7.5	MIL -103
Sep 26th	@PIT	W 5-2	-1.5 W	U 7.5	MIL -120

Christian Yelich
OF
Yelich is out with back
Out
Brandon Woodruff
P
Woodruff is out with shoulder
Out
Robert Gasser
P
Gasser is out with elbow
Out

Paul Blackburn
P
Blackburn is out with hand
Out
Ronny Mauricio
IF
Mauricio is out with knee
Out
Christian Scott
P
Scott is out with elbow
Out

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PITCHER	PC	IP	K	ER
LS.Manaea, P	86	5	4	2
RR.Garrett, P	12	1	1	0
RR.Stanek, P	11	1	0	0
RP.Maton, P	20	1	0	3

HITTERS	H-AB	R	RBI
1F.Lindor, SS	0-2	0	1
2J.Iglesias, 2B	1-5	1	0
2J.Iglesias, 3B	1-5	1	0
3M.Vientos, 3B	1-4	0	0
3L.Acuna, 2B	0-0	0	0
3J.Winker, PH	0-1	0	0
4B.Nimmo, LF	1-3	0	1
5P.Alonso, 1B	1-4	0	0
6J.Martinez, DH	0-3	0	0
7S.Marte, RF	2-3	1	0
7H.Bader, CF	0-0	0	0
8T.Taylor, CF	1-4	1	0
8T.Taylor, RF	1-4	1	0
9F.Alvarez, C	1-4	0	1

PITCHER	PC	IP	K	ER
RF.Montas, P	60	3.2	3	1
RT.Megill, P	22	1.1	3	0
RJ.Payamps, P	17	1	1	0
LJ.Koenig, P	7	0.2	0	0
RJ.Ross, P	12	1.1	0	0
RD.Williams, P	10	1	0	0

HITTERS	H-AB	R	HR	RBI
1J.Chourio, LF	2-4	2	2	2
2B.Perkins, CF	2-3	0	0	1
3W.Contreras, C	1-4	0	0	0
4W.Adames, SS	1-4	1	0	0
5G.Sanchez, DH	1-3	0	0	0
5G.Mitchell, PR	1-1	1	1	2
5G.Mitchell, DH	1-1	1	1	2
6R.Hoskins, 1B	0-4	0	0	0
7S.Frelick, RF	1-3	0	0	0
8J.Ortiz, 3B	0-3	0	0	0
9B.Turang, 2B	2-3	1	0	0