Today is a very tough day in the prop market. Both teams are going with bullpen-heavy days, so there are no lines to target for starting pitchers. Plus, it's unlikely that any batter gets to face a pitcher more than once.
However, there are two pitchers our team believes we'll see more than most — the right-handed, slider-heavy Cristian Javier for Houston, and the southpaw, curveball-heavy Drew Smyly for Atlanta.
Therefore, I'm looking to target a left-handed slider hitter in the Braves lineup, a right-handed curveball hitter in the Houston lineup, and then play them together as a flex-play on PrizePicks.
Here's how PrizePicks works: You play two-player props together, and if both hit, you'll get paid out 2X your initial wager. However, if only one hits, you'll still get paid out 0.5X your initial wager.
Considering today's unknowns, this strategy minimizes our risk while still providing the potential of a big payday.
That being said, let's look at our best Prize Picks prop plays for Game 4.
MLB Player Props & Picks
Freddie Freeman Over 1.5 Total Bases
Freddie Freeman has yet to break out in this series, but he's recorded a single in all three games. He's primed to break out in Game 4.
If we do get a good dose of Javier tonight, Freeman is going to crush him. Freeman has great platoon splits against right-handers (.534 SLG, .949 OPS) and has posted a +11 Run Value against 443 sliders this season (.505 SLG, .407 wOBA).
Obviously, Freeman likes batting at home too. At Truist Park this season and hitting against the right side, Freeman's posted a 151 wRC+, slugging .534 in the process.
He's complied just one total base in his last three games. But in the final home game against the Brewers, Freeman went off for seven total bases.
Therefore, Freeman's due, and he'll get some good opportunities against Javier and Co. in Game 4.
Yuli Gurriel Over 0.5 Runs + RBIs
In 13 postseason games this year, Gurriel has notched six runs and nine RBI. I like him to do so again tonight.
As mentioned, we're expecting to see Smyly turn over the lineup once or twice. Gurriel has excellent platoon splits against southpaws (.326 BA, .394 OBP, .925 OPS) and has done even better hitting against them on the road (.404 OBP, 158 wRC+).
He hasn't been excellent against the curveball, but he's still posted a positive Run Value against the pitch.
In fact, Gurriel has posted a positive Run Value against curveballs, cutters, changeups, sliders and sinkers, which makes him incredibly versatile in a bullpen game.
I believe Gurriel will play a big part in tonight's game, as he gets on base (.319 BA, .398 OBP in 2021) and is good in high-leverage situations (119 wRC+ with RISP in 2021).
The Astros will need him to both tonight, and this prop will hit if he does.
