Throughout the Major League Baseball playoffs, I will provide a daily breakdown summarizing my thoughts on futures and individual games.
I will also address betting these playoff series, whether on the series moneyline or a game-by-game basis, while using my daily MLB Model projections.
Let's talk series prices and World Series futures before digging into Monday's ALCS Game 3 matchup between the Houston Astros and Boston Red Sox.
Series Moneyline Corner
Here are my updated ML projections for the two league championship series matchups:
Atlanta's pennant chances improved by 19% following their Game 2 win, and the Dodgers may have harmed their Game 4 chances by using Julio Urías in relief on Sunday night, too.
I would still show value at -194 (66% implied) or better to play the Braves series ML again before Game 3, even though we placed that bet at +130 before Game 2.
However, I'm not rushing in, even at -175 (63.6% implied), since I bet the Braves at a significantly better price on the Game 3 moneyline – and we'll continue to get plus-money prices throughout the remainder of this series.
Conversely, I would need +233 or better to play the Dodgers' series ML down 2-0 against Atlanta.
I'm still looking for +108 (48% implied) to bet the ALCS series price on either side of the matchup.
Boston is currently sitting around +105 at DraftKings and +106 at FanDuel. If that number comes up just a bit, the Red Sox could be worth another stab (even if you joined me at +125 before Game 1).
World Series Futures Update
Here are my updated World Series projections for the four remaining teams, alongside listed odds at DraftKings:
Boston remains the only team showing value in the World Series futures market, and I would bet their futures down to +320 (implied 23.8%) at a two-percent edge compared to my projection.
Boston offers more value in the World Series market than they do on their series ML.
As a refresher, here's how my World Series projections have evolved throughout the season:
Astros at Red Sox, Game 3 (8:08 p.m. ET)
With Lance McCullers Jr. missing the ALCS with a forearm injury and Luis Garcia leaving Game 2 with a knee injury, José Urquidy's importance to the Astros has increased dramatically in the past week.
Urquidy (3.87 xERA, 4.38 xFIP, 4.27 SIERA) made two trips to the IL with shoulder discomfort this season, and his long-term durability seems pretty limited. Still, when healthy, he's one of the most underrated pitchers in baseball.
The Mexican hurler offers elite command (4.5% walk rate ranked fifth amongst pitchers, min. 100 IP) with a higher zone rate (50%) than any qualified starter.
Urquidy has a hidden talent in generating popups (16.4%, third amongst starters), often overlooked relative to strikeouts. Still, pop flies are an equally valuable commodity.
The righty offers four pitches that rate as average or better at the MLB level:
I’ve already started to lose him in drafts, so I might as well lean in and give you my favorite SP sleeper this year: José Urquidy. No other pitcher was 110+ on both stuff and command. Every pitch does what it’s supposed to do, and he has four of them. pic.twitter.com/ivgdmgOxAg
— Eno Sarris (@enosarris) February 12, 2021
Urquidy has posted reverse splits in his young professional career, but his strikeout and walk numbers are the same against left and right-handed hitting.
Boston presents a difficult matchup, however. After the trade deadline, the Red Sox had the best offense in baseball against right-handed pitching (123 wRC+). On the season, they ranked first against sliders and third against changeups (on a per-pitch basis), which could neutralize Urquidy's arsenal.
Red Sox starter Eduardo Rodríguez (3.55 xERA, 3.43 xFIP, 3.64 SIERA) largely underachieved this season (4.74 ERA), thanks to an inflated BABIP (.363, vs. .290 league average).
However, this should have been the best season of the southpaw's career by almost any measure.
Still, aside from the fastball, Rodriguez relies on a cutter/changeup combination (combined 40.3% usage), and the Astros ranked first and second against those pitches on a per-pitch basis this season.
Additionally, no team hit left-handed pitching better than the Astros this season (117 wRC+). And while I could say that for right-handed pitching (116 wRC+) too, the Astros also led the league against lefties in 2019 (130 wRC+), 2018 (123 wRC+), and 2017 (120 wRC+) — so that split has held up for several seasons, with a relatively consistent group of offensive pieces.
I still give the Red Sox the starting pitching edge in this matchup, which is enough to overcome slight offensive, defensive, and bullpen advantages for the Astros after accounting for home field:
The opening odds look about right to me.
I would need -103 to bet Boston or +122 to bet Houston on the full game moneyline. And I would set those price targets at -106 and +124 for the First Five Innings (F5).
I doubt any of those numbers come into range.
Neither will an F5 Under 5.5 (to -115) or an F5 Over 4.5 (to -120), but either would require consideration.
I bet the Over 9 early and require -115 or better to play that angle. An Over 9.5 (+102) will also suffice, though 9 is a key number, and I would prefer to stay within the push zone on a 5-4 outcome.
Both offenses are potent and have underlying metrics to support success against the handedness and pitch types of the opposing starting pitchers.
Summary
I will update this post immediately after tracking plays in the Action Network App. If you want bet notifications right away, make sure to follow me there.
I already have two bets tracked in the App for Braves-Dodgers Game 3.
The Bets
- Astros/Red Sox, Over 9 (bet to -115); or Over 9.5 (bet to +102)
Watching
Boston Red Sox vs. Houston Astros
- Astros/Red Sox, F5 Under 5.5 (wait for -115); or F5 Over 4.5 (wait for -120)
- Boston ML (wait for -103); or Houston ML (wait for +122)
- Boston F5 (wait for -106); or Houston F5 (wait for +124)
- Boston — Series ML (value to +108)
- Boston — To Win World Series (value to +320)
Atlanta Braves vs. Los Angeles Dodgers
- Atlanta ML (bet to +160)
- Atlanta — Series ML (value to -194)
- Braves/Dodgers, Under 7.5 (bet to +100)
