As NRFI bets grow in popularity, many sportsbooks are taking advantage by offering promotions centered around the bet.
One of the most prominent to hit the market this season is BetMGM's NRFI Fridays.
So, how does this promo work? You can place a No Run First Inning bet of up to $50 on any Friday MLB game. If your bet loses because exactly one run is scored in the first inning, you get your stake back in bonus bets, up to $50.
In order to bet this promotion, you first need to "Opt In" to the promo via BetMGM's sportsbook. You can place the NRFI bet by betting "No" on the "Will There Be a Run in the 1st Inning?" market. If your bet loses, but one run is scored during the first inning, you'll receive a bonus bet back equaling your stake, up to $50.
Bonus bets will be reflected once the wager is settled, and the offer is only available on Fridays.
During this MLB season, I've regularly been breaking down my favorite NRFI/YRFI bets, and below, I'll give out my favorite BetMGM-specific NRFI wager in which I'd recommend using this bonus wager on.
BetMGM MLB NRFI Friday Best Bet for July 28
This promotion from BetMGM provides a massive value to bettors. Historically, the most likely number of runs in the first inning of a game is zero, and the second-most likely is one.
While my model doesn't produce a percent chance of a specific number of runs, what it does do is provide a mean number of runs for both teams.
From there, I've been extrapolating out the rough odds of any run being scored. But it's fairly easy to expand that to include zero runs, one run and more than one run for this prop.
I was initially worried that we wouldn't have any NRFIs that showed strong value in my model and had the best price on BetMGM.
Fortunately, that's not the case. The game between the Phillies and Pirates is projecting at about -127 for the NRFI, but is priced at just -105 on BetMGM.
That gives us a roughly 44% chance of a run, but nearly 30% of that is based on exactly one run being scored.
All things considered, we end up with a 56% chance of winning the bet and 30% chance of getting our stake refunded in bonus bets, making this a massive value, even when considering that bonus bets are worth a bit under 50% of their stated value.
