Braves vs. Phillies Odds
| Braves Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
| -158 | 8.5 -120 / -102 | -1.5 +104 |
| Phillies Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
+134 | 8.5 -120 / -102 | +1.5 -125 |
Ranger Suárez had some tough outings following his return from the injured list on May 13.
However, in June, he has found his groove, pitching to a minuscule 0.90 ERA over 20 innings. As an added bonus, the Philadelphia Phillies as a whole have turned it around with six straight wins.
On Tuesday, Suárez gets the ball for the Phillies in a battle against Spencer Strider and the Atlanta Braves.
Strider is on the opposite side of the coin. Once heralded as possibly the new best pitcher in baseball, Strider has had trouble in June (9.00 ERA, six homers allowed).
Even though the Braves can hammer left-handed pitching, it's tough to back Strider at his lowest until he shows signs of a resurgence.
Finally looking like the team that fought hard to make an unlikely World Series run last year, the Phillies should be able to score off Strider given his recent performances.
Keep reading for a preview and betting prediction for Braves vs. Phillies on Tuesday night at Citizens Bank Park.
Atlanta Braves
Strider will likely find a way to remedy his issues (4.12 ERA against a 3.25 xERA), but he does have an 11% Barrel Rate. His Average Exit Velocity is over 90 mph, and his walk rate is over 9%. All of these numbers are worse compared to what he put up during his 2022 NL Cy Young Award campaign.
May and June, specifically, have been troublesome.
In June, Strider has allowed 15 earned runs and eight walks over 15 innings, though the strikeouts have still been there for him (21).
On the plus side, he's backed by an offense that can absolutely mash.
The Braves have a 127 wRC+ and .856 OPS. However, their walk rate is low (6.7%), so they are hitting the ball well more than anything. On the season, they have eight active players who have an xwOBA of at least .325 against left-handed pitching.
In relief, the Braves own an MLB-best 3.23 xFIP and have five relievers who have an xFIP below 4.00.
That being said, the unit has an 88.1% LOB percentage, so their numbers could regress a bit. Jesse Chavez landing on the injured list hurts in terms of long-relief options.
Philadelphia Phillies
As noted in the intro, Suárez is on the upswing after taking his lumps.
He has never been much of a strikeout pitcher, so a 22% strikeout rate will suffice. His Average Exit Velocity is up from last season, but much of the damage was from his first few outings. His numbers are starting to stabilize and his 0.90 ERA over three starts in June is impressive considering it was against the likes of the Nationals, Dodgers and Diamondbacks.
On offense, the Phillies are turning it around.
Trea Turner is hitting better — that obviously helps. In addition, since June 1, they have eight batters with a .325+ xwOBA off righties.
They have a 9.7% walk rate, too, which should help against a guy like Strider, who has been issuing free passes. A 112 wRC+ off of righties this month should get the job done.
Of course, when June arrives, that means it's Kyle Schwarber time.
I’m so bewildered as to how Kyle schwarber just morphs into a baseball god when the calendar flips to June pic.twitter.com/RBiZTiGQMs
— Philly Sports Sufferer (@mccrystal_alex) June 18, 2023
In relief, the Phils aren't too shabby.
They have a collective xFIP of 3.81 in June. Seranthony Domínguez is on the injured list, but they have five arms below the 4.00 mark, just like the Braves.
Braves vs. Phillies Betting Pick
In summary, both teams can hit, Strider is struggling, Suárez is coming into his own and the bullpens are pretty good.
Since both squads have the same number of relievers who have performed well lately and the same number of batters who have done the same, it's hard to see a gap in this moneyline.
Strider will return to form eventually, but for now, take the Phils at +134 and play them to +105.
Pick: Phillies ML (+134 | Play Down to +105) |
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