The Chicago Cubs (74-70) and Los Angeles Dodgers (86-58) continue their three-game series on Tuesday at Dodger Stadium. First pitch is set for 10:10 p.m. ET on TBS.
These two teams are in very different spots as we head towards the home stretch of the MLB season. The Cubs are five games out of the final National League wild-card spot, while the Dodgers are tied for the best record in baseball. Both teams are fighting but for very different outcomes.
Chicago won the series' first game yesterday by a score of 10-4, pouncing on Walker Buehler early after scoring only two runs in a three-game homestead vs the Yankees this last weekend. The Dodgers look to rebound here on Tuesday after a series win against the Guardians, which has them continuing to roll in September.
In today's contest, we have a matchup of marquee starters from Japan. Shota Imanaga takes on Yoshinobu Yamamoto, with Yamamoto returning to the mound for the first time since mid-June due to a rotator cuff strain.
Can these big-name international signings control opposing rosters, or will we see another high-scoring affair?
Let's get into the latest MLB odds, including a Chicago Cubs vs Los Angeles Dodgers prediction and pick.
Cubs-Dodgers Predictions
- Cubs vs Dodgers Picks: Over 7.5 (-110 | Play to -125)
My Cubs vs Dodgers best bet is on Over 7.5, where I see value at -110. The best line is available at Caesars, as well as other sportsbooks — make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Cubs vs Dodgers Odds
| Cubs Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
+140 | 8 -110 / -110 | +1.5 -160 |
| Dodgers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
-165 | 8 -110 / -110 | -1.5 +135 |
Tuesday Probable Starting Pitchers for Cubs-Dodgers
| LHP Shota Imanaga (CHC) | Stat | RHP Yoshinobu Yamamoto (LAD) |
|---|---|---|
| 12-3 | W-L | 6-2 |
| 2.9 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 2.3 |
| 2.99 / 3.44 | ERA /xERA | 2.92 / 3.24 |
| 3.66 / 3.70 | FIP / xFIP | 2.69 / 2.95 |
| 1.02 | WHIP | 1.07 |
| 21.1% | K-BB% | 22.3% |
| 35.6% | GB% | 48.5% |
| 89 | Stuff+ | 99 |
| 105 | Location+ | 105 |
Justin Perri's Cubs vs Dodgers Preview
Chicago Cubs Betting Preview: Up and Down
Shota Imanaga is coming off a start against the Pirates where he and two relief pitchers combined to throw a no-hitter against the Pirates. Imanaga did issue two walks but struck out seven in seven innings. It can be challenging for pitchers to maintain that level of performance across multiple starts, especially when going from your home park to the road, but even more so when facing the Dodgers lineup.
A big aspect of how tough Imanaga's night will be is the health of one Teoscar Hernandez. The Dodgers slugger has missed multiple games with an ankle sprain but hasn't hit the IL, so they could play today after sitting out last night's season opener.
As for how Imanaga looks under the hood, it's pretty solid. The pitch shape on his fastball is a major part of why he's been so effective this season. There are slight concerns about the velocity dipping beneath 91 mph for each of the last three starts, compared to a season average of 91.7. Still, his ability to locate has warded off any unwanted results. His pitch level results are consistent and a big part of his 12-3 record on the season.
The Cubs lineup has been struggling a bit. Entering yesterday's match, they had been shut out three times in their last five games, but facing Walker Buehler was precisely the remedy needed, and Chicago put up its second double-digit run total in the last week. They've been up and down in the last few days, but the potential for high-scoring games is always present when the bats are clicking.
Run scoring issues have plagued the Cubs more so on the road, the total when Chicago travels is 30-40-1 O/U. However, the Cubs have been a solid spread team as underdogs this season with a 43-28 ATS record when getting the 1.5 runs.
Los Angeles Dodgers Betting Preview: The Return Of Yamamoto
The return of Yoshinobu Yamamoto can not be understated for this Dodgers team.
There is little to no argument that they have the best lineup in baseball. At the top, Mookie Betts and Shohei Ohtanigive Juan Soto and Aaron Judge a run for their money. But the Dodgers follow it up with Freddie Freeman, Teoscar Hernandez and Max Muncy, the latter of which had 100 RBIs last season, hitting behind a lineup that had yet to add the likely NL MVP in Ohtani.
So what's been missing? Why are the Dodgers not already at 100 wins? Injuries.
Pitching injuries are the main culprit. Tyler Glasnow, Walker Buehler, Gavin Stone, Tony Gonsolin, Clayton Kershaw and River Ryan have all spent time on the IL this season. That's an entire starting rotation for most teams in the MLB.
Yamamoto was supposed to be the gem of them all, the ace on a staff filled with aces. So when he injured his rotator cuff in June, the Dodgers could only hope he'd be ready to go by the time the playoffs rolled around. Well lucky for them, here we are, the golden child has returned and he even has time to get back to speed before the playoffs begin in less than a month.
So, what should we expect today? Yamamoto only threw two rehab starts and got to just 53 pitches in his most recent of the two outings. He allowed three runs across four total innings and likely will have a pitch limit today.
For that reason, I start to lean towards the over.
The Dodgers pen will likely need to be ready to go as they test out Yamamoto's command, but that unit is stretched thin. I think Chicago will score a few runs.
The Dodgers should probably still win; they're an eye-opening 47-25 on the moneyline at home this season and 80-45 when made the favorite. Their totals go over a home a good deal, 40-29-3 O/U at Dodger Stadium.
Cubs vs Dodgers Prediction, Betting Analysis
This matchup opened around -150 in favor of the Dodgers and, at the time of writing on Tuesday Morning, has moved about 15 cents towards LA and sits at -165 on the consensus line.
Could that mean Teoscar is expected to play? Or is the market simply excited about Yamomoto's return?
The total has fluctuated between 8 and 7.5 after opening much higher at 8.5 overnight. The pitching matchup here is one with much name-brand pull. However, I am not fully sold. You can get by the Pirates with a good location and pitch mix, as Imanaga did. But Tuesday will be a much tougher matchup for the Cubs ace.
And, for Yamamoto, I'll always take a discount on a pitcher making their first start in over 12 weeks. The Cubs lineup looked good yesterday against another injury-plagued Dodgers arm, and with the bullpen needing to go four innings, there could be more scoring from both sides.
My median projection tonight is 8.3 runs.
Pick: Over 8 (-110, Caesars)
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Moneyline
The Dodgers and the Cubs have each won six of their past 10 games.
The Cubs are 36-37 on the road, while the Dodgers are 47-25 at home. The Cubs have won on the moneyline in three of the past four meetings against the Dodgers, taking two of three at Wrigley in April this season and yesterday's series opener.
The Dodgers are likely the right side, but for the price behind a pitcher making his first start in almost three months, I would lean towards Chicago tonight in an upset.
Run Line (Spread)
The Dodgers were once a bastion of reliability against the spread. It felt like every time they won a game, they covered. This season, not so much.
The Dodgers are a very pedestrian 72-70 ATS this year and only 66-59 ATS as favorites. With higher pricing due to their strong lineup and good starting pitching, they are a team that you would be losing money on if blind betting their run line nightly.
I'd probably look to the Cubs with the +1.5 if I wanted to make a run-line bet.
Over/Under
The total here is where I am making my play on the game.
We saw the Cubs light it up in the series opener against Walker Buehler, and there's not much to say that Yamamoto will be any better coming off his injury. We know that the Dodgers likely will not leave him out there too long, so there should be extended exposure to the bullpen for LA.
If Shota's fastball stays below 91 mph, don't be shocked to see a few Dodgers go yard.
Cubs-Dodgers Betting Trends
- 85% of the bets and 89% of the money are on the Dodgers on the moneyline.
- 98% of the bets and 96% of the money are on the over.
- 79% of the bets and 87% of the money are on the Dodgers to cover the run line.
Cubs Betting Trends
- The Cubs are 36-37 on the road this season.
- The Cubs are 43-28 ATS as underdogs this season.
Dodgers Betting Trends
- The Dodgers are 47-25 at home this year.
- The Dodgers are 72-70 ATS this season.
