Giants vs. Angels Odds
| Giants Odds | -111 |
| Angels Odds | +101 |
| Over/Under | 8 (-105/-115) |
| Time | 4:07 p.m. ET |
| TV | MLB.TV |
The Los Angeles Angels host the San Francisco Giants in an interleague matchup on Wednesday afternoon. San Francisco has the best record in MLB, while the Angels surprisingly have a 36-36 record despite being without Mike Trout for the last few weeks.
Even without Trout, the Angels have a strong lineup, but they have weak starting pitching. Wednesday’s starting pitcher Shohei Ohtani is an exception. If Ohtani is included in the Angels lineup by the time lineups are announced, then I expect them to be narrowly favored.
Opposing Ohtani is Kevin Gausman for the Giants who is putting together a strong season. So who has the edge between the two pitchers?
Can Giants' Gausman Keep This Up?
One reason why the Giants have the best record in baseball is because their starting rotation is built around undervalued veterans, and almost all these veterans are overperforming their expectations. Indisputably, Kevin Gausman is one of those overperformers, and he has been the ace of San Francisco’s rotation.
This season Gausman has an 8-1 record with a 1.51 ERA. However, Gausman also has a 3.16 xFIP, which suggests that he should be allowing more than twice as many runs as he is currently allowing, Gausman is likely regress, but that xFIP is still strong, so Gausman should still be a reliable arm for the Giants.
San Francisco is averaging 4.97 runs per game which is the second most in the National League. With C Buster Posey reverting to his NL MVP form and OF Mike Yastrzemski having a strong season, the Giants have one of the better lineups in the league.
Ohtani Makes All the Difference for Angels
The most important position when betting on baseball is of course starting pitcher. Lineups rarely change daily and one hitter doesn't really move lines, but the starting pitcher is different for each game. For the Angels in Ohtani’s starts, Shohei Ohtani is an even more important variable than usual.
Ohtani is the only player in the league who is a starting pitcher who plays virtually everyday as a designated hitter on his days off. While the typical starting pitcher pitches every five days, Ohtani starts only once a week. In his starts, some of the time he hits and pitches, and other times he just pitches.
If Ohtani is in the starting lineup on Wednesday, than the Angels are 1.4 percentage points more likely to win than if he is not in the lineup, according to my model.
Because of the wear and tear on Ohtani’s body, the Angels not only limit the number of his starts, but they frequently limit his innings. However, in three of Ohtani’s last four starts, he has pitched for six innings.
As a pitcher, Ohtani has a 3-1 record with a 2.70 ERA, and a 3.43 xFIP. While Ohtani is currently averaging only about 5 1/3 innings per start, if the Angels can get an extra inning out of Ohtani than they have a good chance of winning. Especially if it means more Ohtani at-bats if he is included in the lineup.
Giants-Angels Pick
If Ohtani is included in the Angels lineup, my model gives a slight edge to the Angels +101 money line.
Los Angeles has played well recently and Shohei Ohtani is one of the better pitchers in the game. I like the Angels money line at +101 and I would bet it up to -105 if Ohtani is included in the lineup. If Ohtani is not included in the lineup, then I would only bet the Angels at +107 or better.
Pick: Angels Moneyline +101 (William Hill) would bet up to -105.
