Giants vs. Reds Odds
| Giants Odds | -225 |
| Reds Odds | +185 |
| Over/Under | 8 (-105 / -115) |
| Time | 6:40 p.m. ET |
| TV | MLB.TV |
| Odds via BetMGM. Get up-to-the-minute MLB odds here. | |
Carlos Rodón and the San Francisco Giants will head east to Cincinnati to play Graham Ashcraft and the Reds. Ashcraft made his debut for Cincinnati on May 22 against the Toronto Blue Jays and gave up two earned runs over 4 1/3 innings. However, he did allow six batters to reach base in that outing.
On the other side of the diamond, Rodón has had a great season. He owns a 2.60 xERA, which ranks in the 86th percentile of MLB. His ERA is 3.42, mainly because he had one bad outing during which he gave up eight earned runs over 3 2/3 innings. Either way, he is elite in contrast to the green starter in the other dugout.
The moneyline is far too stretched to side with the Giants and this San Francisco team has proven its ability to hit right-handers all season — especially in the past few weeks. Taking the Giants team total over is the best bet in this game.
San Francisco Giants: Rodón Should Dominate Reds
The Giants pitching has been slumping a bit, but the bats are still alive and Rodón should get plenty of support. This Reds team has a tendency to chase. Their Chase Rate is nearly 30% and Rodón ranks in the 91st percentile. Expect him to get plenty of swings and misses out of the zone, especially after the Reds assaulted Cubs’ pitching on Thursday afternoon.
The Reds only have three batters with a .340+ xwOBA off of southpaws in May. These numbers are as of Thursday afternoon, but the points stands that, on average, Cincinnati will struggle. With Rodón on the hill, the Reds will not push many runs across the plate. For one, he will strike batters out at will. On occasion, he will give up some walks, but that comes with the territory of having an elite strikeout percentage and chase rate. This should be no contest and that's why, if you want to take a side, taking the Giants on the spread is probably the best option considering how juiced the moneyline opened.
Cincinnati Reds: Can Ashcraft Keep Giants Off the Board?
Ashcraft may have battled through a few innings against the Blue Jays, but that Toronto team currently ranks 26th in the MLB in wRC+ against right-handed pitching (85). This is an abysmal mark compared to the Giants who stand seventh in MLB at 116 in May. The Giants are also a patient ball club and hold a 12.5% walk rate this month off of righties. Since Ashcraft walked two hitters in his first outing, the Giants should be able to take advantage of a few free passes.
This Giants team is missing some key bats as Brandon Belt, LaMonte Wade Jr. and Austin Slater are all out. However, this should not matter as the Giants have three hitters with a .500+ xwOBA off of right-handed sinkers and cutters (two of Ashcraft’s predominant pitches) in May. San Francisco also has five other hitters over .350. This should be more than enough to win the battle against a young starter and score at will.
Building off of that, the Reds own a collective 4.98 bullpen ERA and 4.16 xFIP in May. The Giants should be able to string together some late inning runs, too.
Giants-Reds Pick
Rodón is the ace of this Giants staff and the Reds are an awful baseball team. The moneyline is steep, but a sprinkling the spread could be a good idea. The best option is to go with the over on the Giants team total. They should destroy Ashcraft and hit five runs earlier than expected. Bet this to 5.5 (-110).
Pick: San Francisco Giants o5 (-110) | play to 5.5 (-110)
