Guardians vs. Mariners Odds
| Guardians Odds | -115 |
| Mariners Odds | -105 |
| Over/Under | 8 |
| Time | 4:10 p.m. ET |
| TV | MLB.TV |
| Odds via PointsBet. Get up-to-the-minute MLB odds here. | |
The Cleveland Guardians and Seattle Mariners open a big four-game series on Thursday afternoon. Both teams are in the thick of the AL playoff race and this series has big implications in both the AL Central race and the AL wild-card race.
The Guardians still hold a four-game lead in the AL Central, while the Mariners are clinging to the third and final wild-card spot.
Triston McKenzie gets the start for the Guardians while Marco Gonzales takes the hill for the Mariners. Both pitchers are coming off good starts and this should be a great series as the playoff race heats up.
Road Blues For Guardians' McKenzie?
McKenzie was electric in his last start, striking out 14 Chicago White Sox over seven innings. However, McKenzie has been a much different pitcher on the road than at home this season.
While his road ERA sits at a respectable 3.35 mark, his FIP is 4.72 and his xFIP is 4.45 on the road. These are not terrible numbers, but he strikes out fewer batters and walks more on the road. Giving the Mariners extra base runners at home could be troublesome if McKenzie is wild out of the gates.
The Guards' offense has handled LHP well on the road over the past month placing in the top ten in team wRC+. However, they are not walking a lot, they're not slugging particularly well and they have a relatively high BABIP over that stretch.
What to Make of Mariners' Gonzales?
Gonzales gets the start and he's one of the more frustrating pitchers to see as a listed probable. He constantly has shaky peripherals, his stuff isn't impressive, but he is not an automatic fade.
The Mariners' offense has been below average against RHP at home over the past two weeks, but they do provide 4.1 runs of support per Gonzales start.
A relatively healthy Mariners offense will get things going against an inconsistent road McKenzie.
Guardians-Mariners Pick
The Guardians opened as favorites in this matchup and that is most likely due to the starting pitching edge. Even on the road, McKenzie has the edge over Gonzales. However, McKenzie is a pitcher that experiences hiccups every third to fifth start.
The Guards have the better pitcher, bullpen and offense, but their offense seems to be due for a regression as overall they have been one of the worst teams on the road against LHP this season.
The Mariners' moneyline opened at +115 and moved to -105 overnight meaning that people were pretty keen on a Mariners upset Thursday afternoon. The Mariners' F5 moneyline sits in plus money and that could be the sneaky plus money play in this matchup.
Considering McKenzie's command issues on the road and the Guardians' possible regression, play the Mariners' first five moneyline as long as it's in plus money.
Pick: Mariners F5 +105
