The stage is set for Game 3 of the American League Division Series between the Detroit Tigers and Cleveland Guardians. First pitch is set for 3:08 PM on TBS. The winner gets one step closer to reaching the ALCS.
Here's a pair of Guardians vs Tigers player props I'm playing for Game 3 on Wednesday.
Guardians vs Tigers Player Props Game 3
- Kerry Carpenter Home Run (+700, bet365)
- Bo Naylor U0.5 hits (-140, DraftKings)
Kerry Carpenter Player Props: Value on Home Run Pop
Kerry Carpenter Home Run (+700)
I'm just a sucker for Kerry Carpenter's props at this point.
I mean, what's not to love about the best power hitter on this Tigers squad? He hit 18 homers with a career-best .932 OPS in just 87 regular-season games due to injury. He also propelled the Tigers to a huge win over the Guardians in Game 2 with a three-run homer off the previously untouchable Emmanuel Clase.
I'll target Carpenter to homer again at +700. I had to dig through a bit and found that Carpenter homered 13 times at home and just five times in road games. He's very comfortable hitting at home to right field, which is the easiest spot to drop a homer in Detroit.
Looking at the odds, Spencer Torkelson's odds are +600 and Carpenter's is +700. Torkelson has zero hits in the playoffs, so that should tell the story as to why those odds don't make sense. Sure, Carpenter could get pinch-hit for when Steven Vogt puts a southpaw in, but he'll have some shots against righties.
Carpenter will get his first licks against Alex Cobb, who allowed just one homer in three starts this year for Cleveland.
If you wanted to be a little safer, then taking over 1.5 on Carpenter's hits/runs/RBI total is a solid play as well. It's not the lofty odds like the homer prop, but he's gone over in 2-of-4 playoff games so far.
Bo Naylor Player Props: Fade Guardians' Catcher
Bo Naylor Under 0.5 Hits (-140)
There are several Guardians hitters worth fading, but the one I like the most is Bo Naylor under 0.5 hits.
The fact that manager Steven Vogt went to Austin Hedges versus Tarik Skubal speaks to Vogt's deteriorating trust in the young catcher. Yes, that was against a lefty, and Naylor is a lefty, but playing Hedges in any scenario is virtually giving up a spot in the lineup.
Naylor is 6-for-47 over his last 17 games, including the two postseason games. He just isn't a good hitter, and the Guardians will likely find a lane to pinch-hit for him if the game is close late.
