While the Washington Nationals and Los Angeles Angels saw their playoff hopes soar past them months ago, there are still plenty of potential positives to draw in the next couple months. The hometown Nationals secured a pair of wins in extra innings in the first two games of the series and will look to secure the sweep in a fashion that'll lead to fewer heart palpitations from Nats bettors.
Star shortstop CJ Abrams will miss Sunday's game after being a late scratch from Saturday's lineup due to a back injury. So, that's worth noting before taking any potential action on this series finale, which has the Nationals as -150 moneyline favorites and the Angels as slight +125 underdogs.
I still managed to find a Nationals-related play I can back comfortably even with Abrams out, which I'll dive deeper into in the write-up. Read below for my Angels vs. Nationals prediction for Sunday.
Angels vs. Nationals Odds: Washington Favored in Sunday's Matchup
| Angels Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -176 | 8.5 -122o / +100u | +126 |
| Nationals Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +142 | 8.5 -122o / +100u | -148 |
Angels vs Nationals Projected Starting Pitchers
| RHP Jack Kochanowicz (LAA) | Stat | LHP MacKenzie Gore (WAS) |
|---|---|---|
| 0-2 | W-L | 7-9 |
| -0.2 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 2.2 |
| 14.14/11.41 | ERA /xERA | 4.68/4.50 |
| 7.60/5.40 | FIP / xFIP | 3.60/3.99 |
| 2.43 | WHIP | 1.53 |
| 5.7 | K-BB% | 2.8 |
| 56.0 | GB% | 36.7 |
| 98 | Stuff+ | 113 |
| 96 | Location+ | 98 |
Sean Paul's Angels vs Nationals Preview
Los Angeles Angels Betting Preview: Halos Lack Depth
Los Angeles recently brought up Jack Kochanowicz, who's pitched to a 14.14 in two career starts, and will start in this matinee matchup. With those numbers, he's not a spectacular option, but it's the current state of the Angels' rotation behind Tyler Anderson.
The Angels' offense is better facing left-handers, like Mackenzie Gore, but it is still pretty mediocre. They own a 97 wRC+ against lefties, ranking 19th in MLB, led by burgeoning star shortstop Zach Neto's 197 wRC+.
In general, Neto is pretty terrific. The second-year shortstop is batting .313 with an OPS over .900 in his past 30 games with a wRC+ well above 180. That's terrific offensive production from a premium position.
Los Angeles's offensive production dips quickly once it goes beyond Neto and Nolan Schanuel. Both Neto and Schanuel boast a wRC+ above 160 in the past month, and Jo Adell is the only other Halos hitter above the league average 100 marker.
The Angels have appeared more patient in their plate approach in the past month, posting an 8.1 walk rate. That's a bit better than in other months this year, so surely the veteran manager Ron Washington made working pitch counts a point of emphasis. From an individual player standpoint, Schanuel has made the biggest leap, posting a bloated 15% walk rate in that span.
It's rare for Angels fans to have something to cheer about, so let me polish off the Angels portion of this preview with some Ben Joyce love. The hard-throwing reliever is fully entrenched in the closer's role, replacing Carlos Estevez, who the Angels sent to the Phillies at the deadline. Joyce added a "splinker" (a mixture of sinker and splitter, mostly brought to the forefront by Twins closer Jhoan Duran) to compliment his elite triple-digits fastball, which turned him into one of the scariest late-inning arms in MLB.
Washington Nationals Betting Preview: Trust Gore Long-Term?
One part of the historical Juan Soto haul the Nationals landed from the Padres has hit. That's shortstop CJ Abrams, who, at least, is a piece of the Nationals' future at an important position. They still hope Gore can realize the potential that made him a premier pitching prospect a few years back.
Calling Gore's last seven starts a total disaster is an understatement. It's been a nightmarish past two months for a pitcher who looked like a potential All-Star in April and May. The hard-throwing southpaw has a brutal 7.55 ERA in just 31 innings over the past month. The biggest issue for Gore is constant traffic on the basepaths. He allows nearly two base runners per inning, contributing to his lack of length in starts — pitching fewer than five innings per start.
I still trust Gore long-term. There's a vast disparity between Gore's ERA (4.66) and his FIP (3.60.) I'll use that information to grow my "Gore still has the chance to be a high-end starter" narrative. I'm still a believer, even though many have jumped off the bandwagon with his recent outings, and I can't blame them.
The Nationals offense isn't a world-beater, but it's better than the Angels lineup. They recorded a 101 wRC+ from July 15th to August 10th, led by lefty bats Luis Garcia Jr and rookie James Wood.
Washington excels in two areas: Not striking out is the biggest piece of the puzzle, punching out at a 19% clip in the past month (fifth best in MLB) combined with a strong 8.4% walk rate (11th in MLB). The Nationals are one of four teams in MLB with a strikeout rate of less than 20% and a walk rate of better than 8%, joined by the Yankees, A's, and Diamondbacks.
Angels vs Nationals Prediction, Betting Analysis: LAA Moneyline
Typically, I don't lay more than -165 juice on any play, so that's the absolute most I'll lay with Gore and the Nationals here. Betting on Gore is tough right now, but I will gladly fade Kochanowicz if he ends up tossing bulk innings. If Gore can simply throw strikes, it should help him neutralize the Angels' mediocre lineup.
Pick: Nationals ML (-142 | Play to -165) |
What is QuickSlip?
QuickSlip is an Action Network feature that allows users to automatically pre-load their bet slip at FanDuel Sportsbook.
Moneyline
My play of the game is Nats moneyline, so that remains the same here.
Run Line (Spread)
If anything, I don't hate the Nationals -1.5 at +120. Particularly if the money line ends up passing my -165 threshold, then the Nationals run line would slide into the role as my favorite play for the game. I'm a Gore truther if you haven't figured that out yet — for better or worse.
Over/Under
I'll pass on the total here. Both offenses are slightly worse than the league average, and I'm not super confident in the pitching matchup. If the Angels' cryptic approach ends up backfiring, then it could be a flurry of runs for the Nats. Otherwise, it could be a low-scoring affair, so I don't have a great pulse on the total.
