Marlins vs. Phillies Odds
| Marlins Odds | +105 |
| Phillies Odds | -125 |
| Over/Under | 7.5 (-110 / -110) |
| Time | 1:05 p.m. ET |
| TV | MLB.TV |
| Odds via PointsBet. Get up-to-the-minute MLB odds here. | |
Kyle Gibson and the Philadelphia Phillies will host the Miami Marlins.
Pablo López was originally supposed to start on Wednesday, but Miami manager Don Mattingly said his turn in the rotation will be pushed back due to a wrist contusion. It's looking more and more like the Marlins will employ a bullpen day, with Mattingly saying after Tuesday's game that a corresponding roster move would be made Wednesday morning.
Thus, it's important to remember that this line could change based on who the Marlins pick.
However, we'll operate under the assumption that it's either a bullpen game or a spot starter who isn't expected to go long into the game. And regardless of who starts, the Marlins bullpen has struggled this season. Since they'll likely go pretty deep into the Marlins' relief corps, the Phillies could rack up runs as the game progresses.
Kyle Gibson is on the mound for the Phillies and has been solid this season, but Miami entered Tuesday night's game hitting right-handers with a 121 wRC+ over its last month. Philadelphia’s bullpen has also been relatively weak, so taking the over is the correct call for this game.
Marlins' Struggling Bullpen Faces Difficult Test
Mattingly will likely use the long-relief options available to him in the bullpen. Either way, entering Tuesday night's game, the Phillies are slightly above average with a 101 wRC+ against right-handed pitching over the past month. When a southpaw pitches, the Phillies are at 112. Since the beginning of June, those number stand at a 151 wRC+ against righties and 120 against lefties.
When you take into account the Phillies' current stretch of play and disregard the play that led to Joe Girardi's firing, Philly has been crushing the ball.
The Marlins have six relievers under a 4.00 xFIP over the past month entering Tuesday night. This is not great, especially when so many of them will have to log at least an inning on Wednesday.
Miami entered Tuesday night with three southpaws and five righties in the bullpen, so it could deploy a strategy of switching between a right-hander and left-hander to try to throw the Phillies off. That may not matter given how well Philadelphia has been hitting of late.
Philadelphia Phillies
Gibson has a 4.41 ERA against a 3.87 xERA, so he has been slightly unlucky and about average. Over the past two months, he has struggled immensely, though. He owned a 4.78 ERA in 26 1/3 innings in May and has a 7.71 ERA in June in 7 1/3 innings.
Joey Wendle and Brian Anderson are on the injured list for the Marlins, so this will impact lineup construction for Mattingly a bit. Regardless, they have nine hitters over the .340 xwOBA mark in the past month off of right-handers. This is incredible and should continue Gibson’s weak pitching streak. In addition, five of those bats have average exit velocities of at least 90 mph.
If Gibson still has trouble, he won't have a long leash. This will be a problem because the Philadelphia bullpen is even weaker than Miami’s. The Phillies only have three pitchers under a 4.00 xFIP, which is brutal. Piling onto it, only Brad Hand and José Alvarado are Philly's only lefties, and they have not thrown well. Miami has been subpar off of lefties, so the pair might heat the Marlins bats up.
Marlins-Phillies Pick
Both bullpens in this game are bad, but the Phillies are worse. Philly has hit so well that it will be able to take advantage of a Miami bullpen that will be deployed mostly in full for this game. You can also expect the Phillies to touch up the struggling Gibson.
Take the over at 7.5. There should be plenty of runs in this one.
Pick: Over 7.5 (play to 9.5)
