Mets vs Nationals Prediction, Picks Thursday | MLB Odds Today (July 4)

José Quintana is definitely one of the weaker pitchers in the New York Mets’ rotation. However, the Mets have been hammering the ball lately and also boast a potent bullpen with plenty of pitchers who throw gas.

Now, they'll be facing Jake Irvin and the Washington Nationals. The significant news around the Nationals lately is the call-up of top prospect, James Wood. Regardless, Washington hasn't hit lefties well of late.

That being said, let's get to my Nationals vs. Mets pick and prediction.

Quintana has a 4.57 ERA and a 5.28 xERA. He is walking about 8% of hitters and only striking out 18.1%. He is easily above average in terms of keeping the ball on the ground. That's going to be crucial because his hard-hit rate ranks in the 12th percentile and he allows consistent contact. Over the past month, the Mets' southpaw has been throwing well, striking out over 25% of batters. He also has a much lower average exit velocity and hard-hit rate during that span.

At the plate, the Mets have been raking. They have a 145 wRC+ (tied for the best in baseball with Baltimore) against righties over the past month and also own a walk rate above 10% and a strikeout rate below 19% during that time.

In relief, the Mets have been excellent of late. They have a 3.60 xFIP with a strikeout rate above 24% and a walk rate under 8.5% over the past month. Only Jake Diekman has a xFIP above 4.00 in that same timeframe, so the Mets have several options to put in the game, if Quintana struggles.

Irvin is a ground-ball pitcher with a sub-4.00 xERA and ERA. He has been solid, but his ground-ball rate has only been slightly better than Quintana’s. He allows hard contact often and consistently. Additionally, the Mets have done a great job of lowering their ground-ball rate, so he will have a tough task here. His walk rate is far better than Quintana’s, but he'll also be facing a tougher lineup in this matchup.

The Nationals added a spark to the lineup in Wood, but still have an 83 wRC+ off of lefties in the past month. They only walk 6.3% of the time and don't strike out much (19.4%).

Washington’s bullpen has also been lights out. The Nationals have a xFIP of 3.40 in the past month with a 24.6% strikeout rate and a 5.3% walk rate. Like the Mets, they have several options in relief, but since New York is hitting so well lately, it may not matter as much.

Although Irvin would usually be a sure bet against Quintana, the Mets' starter has pitched well in the past month and has looked like his old self. As a result, the starting pitching matchup looks like a wash, or potentially an edge to Quintana and the Mets. Both bullpens are strong, but the Mets hold a massive advantage at the dish. Look for some fireworks in this matchup and expect New York to keep mashing. Bet the Mets to -130.

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