MLB Best Bets, Picks: Odds, Predictions for Thursday’s Major League Baseball Games
Photo by Ronald Martinez/Getty Images. Pictured: Ben Lively
MLB Best Bets and Picks
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
| 7:07 p.m. | ||
| 8:10 p.m. | ||
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our MLB Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
We have a strong MLB slate on Thursday, June 27.
Our free MLB expert picks provide insight and analysis for all the MLB games of the day. With nine games on the docket today, our staff of MLB betting analysts has locked in two of their favorite MLB best bets for today.
Yankees vs. Blue Jays
By Tony Sartori
There is just not a single advantage that Toronto possesses in this game other than home field. To that, I will mention that New York's .636 road win percentage is far higher than the Jays' .486 home win percentage.
Going back to this matchup specifically, the Yankees possess the starting pitching and bullpen advantage. Carlos Rodon outranks Jose Berrios in xERA, xBA, whiff rate and strikeout rate.
Furthermore, Berrios possesses a poor track record against New York, going 0-4 across the past four meetings with a 6.08 ERA and 1.39 WHIP. The Yankees won each of those four games by at least a two-run margin.
Meanwhile, New York's relief staff outranks Toronto's in ERA, FIP and xFIP. That just leaves the hitting matchup, which, again, is a clear edge for the Yankees.
They pace the Blue Jays in runs scored per game, hits per game, BA, OBP, SLG, OPS and home runs. Given all of these variables, I think it's worth taking a shot on New York's run line at +118 rather than laying -138 on the moneyline.
MLB Game Pick: Yankees -1.5 (+118) | Play to +110 via FanDuel
Guardians vs. Royals
By D.J. James
Michael Wacha was a sight for sore eyes in the rotation for Kansas City Royals’ fans in the off-season, but his injury has limited him to some action this month. He returned against Texas, and the veteran righty logged five innings of one-run ball. His 4.07 ERA against a 3.60 xERA should indicate positive regression at one point. As usual, he limits hard hits and doesn't walk many hitters.
His opponent will be Ben Lively and the Cleveland Guardians. Lively has seen a bit of a resurgence with an ERA of 3.03 and xERA of 3.73. He will have a tendency to give up hard hits, but he can limit walks as well.
The major difference is hitting as the Guardians have a 125 wRC+ off of righties in June with a sub-17% strikeout rate. Kansas City, on the other hand, has been struggling. It has an 80 WRC+ off of righties this month.
In relief, it's pretty much the same story. Cleveland has excelled in the bullpen all year, and in June, it has a 3.68 xFIP and strikeout rate above 26%. The Guardians will walk hitters (over 10% of the time), but they have the arms to handle the workload once Lively exits.
Kansas City has been terrible out of the bullpen this year. In June, it has a 4.40 xFIP and are only striking out 17.6% of batters.
Look for the Royals to strike out much more often in this one and for the Guardians to continue hitting. Take Cleveland from -112 to -135.
MLB Game Pick: Guardians Moneyline -112 (Play to -135) via FanDuel
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