MLB Best Bets: Thursday Night Moneyline Prediction

There are 12 games on Thursday's MLB slate, and our staff of MLB betting analysts has come through with their MLB best bets today.

Those best bets include today's top picks, totals and moneyline predictions, so be sure to keep reading as you'll find our MLB Best Bets for Thursday, July 11, below.

MLB Best Bets: Thursday Night Moneyline Prediction

The team logos in the table below represent each of the matchups that our MLB betting staff is targeting from the Thursday slate of games. Click on the team logos for any of the matchups below to navigate to a specific MLB best bet discussed in this article.

Game	Time (ET)	Pick
	6:35 p.m.	Orioles Moneyline (-125)
	1:10 p.m.	Over 8.5 | Play to 9
	2:10 p.m.	Bryan Reynolds Over 0.5 Home Runs (+400 | Play to +375)
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our MLB Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game.

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Thursday, July 11

1:10 p.m. ET

MLB.TV

Over 8.5 | Play to 9

By William Boor

Simply put, I don't trust either of these starting pitchers.

Let's start with David Peterson, who is slated to start for the Mets. The 28-year-old lefty gave up two runs over 6 1/3 innings against these same Nationals on July 1, but the metrics suggest he's unlikely to repeat that performance. Peterson has pitched to a 3.58 ERA this season, but his 5.71 xERA suggests regression is coming.

Peterson also ranks in the 10th percentile or worse in strikeout rate, average exit velocity and xBA. That's not exactly the type of pitcher I want to back.

Opposite Peterson, the Nationals will start MacKenzie Gore, who has given up five earned runs in two of his past three starts. The lone exception was a start against the Mets in which he gave up one run over 5 2/3 innings, but I'm buying more into Gore's full season metrics — a 3.90 xERA and a .253 xBA (36th percentile) — than that one start.

Gore is the better starter in this game, but he'll also be facing the better lineup as the Mets are averaging 4.81 runs per game this season compared to Washington's 4.20.

Additionally, if these starters fare better than expected, the bullpens could still help this bet cash. Neither team boasts an elite relief unit as the Nationals' bullpen has a 4.16 ERA (16th in MLB) and the Mets' has pitched to a 4.24 ERA (20th).

Both starters have flaws and both bullpens are subpar, so I feel good about betting this game to go Over 8.5 runs and would play that to Over 9.

Pick: Over 8.5 | Play to 9

Thursday, July 11

2:10 p.m. ET

MLB.TV

Bryan Reynolds Over 0.5 Home Runs (+400 | Play to +375)

By Tony Sartori

Right-hander Aaron Civale takes the mound for Milwaukee, and he should be a good fade candidate. Civale is 2-6 through 18 starts with a fade-worthy 5.18 ERA and a 1.39 WHIP this season.

His underlying metrics are equally poor as he ranks in the bottom half of the league in xERA, xBA, average exit velocity and hard-hit rate. Specifically, we are going to fade the right-hander through Pittsburgh's Bryan Reynolds.

Once again this season, Reynolds is the team's best hitter. He leads the lineup in BA, OBP, SLG, OPS and home runs. He homered in the opening game of this series against the Brewers and he is likely to find success again in this matchup.

Reynolds is 3-for-10 with two homers in his career against Civale. That's good for a .300 BA, a .900 SLG and a .493 wOBA.

Pick: Bryan Reynolds Over 0.5 Home Runs (+400 | Play to +375)

Thursday, July 11

6:35 p.m. ET

MLB.TV

Orioles Moneyline (-125)

By AAA Sports

This bet is largely based upon the starting pitching matchup. I respect the Cubs' Justin Steele, but ultimately believe Albert Suarez should be a bigger favorite in this spot. As a result, I see value in backing the home side.

The Cubs are just 19-28 on the road this season, while the Orioles are 29-19 at home. Also, Steele is 1-3 with a 2.95 ERA, while Suarez is 5-2 with a 2.48 ERA. Steele has pitched than his win/loss record indicates, but Suarez has been exceptional at home. In fact, the 34-year-old right hander is 2-0 with a 1.50 ERA at home this season.

Look for Suarez and the Orioles to do more than enough to secure a win in front of the hometown fans on Thursday.

Pick: Orioles Moneyline (-125)

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