MLB Best Bets Friday: Fade Logan Webb vs Dodgers?
Getty Images. Pictured: Logan Webb.
We have a loaded slate of baseball to watch on Friday night, and our staff of MLB analysts is offering up two MLB Best Bets, including a moneyline pick for Rockies vs White Sox and a prop prediction for Dodgers vs Giants.
Check out our Friday MLB Best Bets below.
MLB Best Bets Friday: Fade Logan Webb vs Dodgers?
The team logos in the table below represent each of the matchups that our MLB betting staff is targeting from the Friday slate of games. Click on the team logos for any of the matchups below to navigate to a specific MLB best bet discussed in this article.
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
| 10:15 p.m. | ||
| 7:10 p.m. | ||
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our MLB Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Rockies vs. White Sox
By D.J. James
Drew Thorpe had one poor outing in his first three, so his overall 5.02 ERA and 4.40 xERA don't tell the entire story.
In his last start at Detroit, the top-100 prospect held the Tigers to six baserunners over six innings with zero earned runs. Walks have been an issue, but he has limited barrels behind a great changeup.
Friday, he will be tasked with a very weak Colorado Rockies team.
The Rockies are throwing Dakota Hudson in Chicago. Hudson may keep the ball on the ground, but he has been awful otherwise. He allows plenty of hard contact, rarely strikes anyone out, and quickly accrues pitches with control problems (11% walk rate).
The White Sox cannot hit, but neither can the Rockies. In June, the White Sox have a 76 wRC+ off of righties with a walk rate of 6.2%. The Rockies have a 79 wRC+ with a 6.9% walk rate. But the White Sox do not play at Coors Field.
In relief, the Rockies haven't been sharp this June. They own a 4.66 xFIP with an 18% strikeout rate.
The Sox, however, have the second-best bullpen xFIP this month (3.45). Their walk rate is nearly 10%, but their 27% strikeout rate means not all is bad.
Since the White Sox should have an edge at home in pitching, they should take game one of the series.
Pick: White Sox ML (-122) | Play to ML (-130)
- Use our FanDuel Promo Code to get the most out of your Rockies vs White Sox action.
Dodgers vs. Giants
By Tony Sartori
San Francisco hands the ball to right-hander Logan Webb, and he should be a good fade candidate based on his expected regression.
Despite posting a 3.16 ERA and 1.22 WHIP through 17 starts this season, Webb possesses a 4.34 xERA and ranks in the 12th percentile or lower among qualified pitchers in xBA, average exit velocity allowed, and hard-hit rate allowed.
The right-hander also ranks in the 10th percentile in whiff rate and 42nd percentile in strikeout rate, which is the avenue in which we will fade Webb on Friday.
Webb has recorded five or fewer strikeouts in two of his past three starts.
These woes will likely continue against Los Angles, a team Webb is 3-4 against over the past seven meetings with a 4.78 ERA and 1.49 WHIP. He recorded five or fewer strikeouts in five of those seven outings.
Pick: Logan Webb Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-148)
- Maximize your Logan Webb action with our FanDuel promo code.
How would you rate this article?