Giants vs. Rockies Odds
| Giants Odds | -109 [Bet Now] |
| Rockies Odds | -107 [Bet Now] |
| Over/Under | 11.5 (-115/-106) [Bet Now] |
| First Pitch | 8:40 p.m. ET |
Odds updated as of Tuesday at 6:40 p.m. ET and via DraftKings. Get up to a $1,000 sign-up bonus at DraftKings today or see more offers and reviews for the best online sportsbooks.
The Colorado Rockies welcome the San Francisco Giants for a quick two-game series in Denver. The Giants trail the Rockies by a half-game in the NL West; but more importantly, both teams are within one game of an NL Wild Card spot.
Two right-handers will face off in the series opener with Kevin Gausman taking the mound for the Giants against Jon Gray of the Rockies. Both pitchers have ERAs over 4.00, but their predictive metrics suggest that each of them has had a bit of tough luck.
Despite tonight’s game taking place in the hitter’s haven that is Coors Field, I expect that we’ll get a representative performance from both starters in what could feel like a playoff ballgame.
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Colorado Rockies
Jon Gray is 2-3 on the season with a 5.45 ERA, and yet he sports a 1.29 WHIP. A closer look reveals that Gray’s numbers are actually quite good on the year: He has a 0.99 HR/9 ratio and a 2.72 BB/9 ratio.
Nothing really seems out of line with his numbers — until you discover that he’s only stranding 57.6% of the runners on base. When I compare Gray's .269 BABIP to his ERA, my assessment is that he’s having clean innings for the most part, but the bulk of hits that occur against him do so with runners on base.
Gray reports a 4.48 FIP, and because that figure is lower than his ERA, we could see an improvement in his runs allowed by almost one full run if those balls in play are converted to outs.
San Francisco Giants
Kevin Gausman will be making his eighth start of the season tonight and his second start at Coors Field. He last faced the Rockies in a 5-2 defeat almost a month ago. Gausman is 1-2 on the year with a 4.54 ERA, and — like Gray — his 1.26 WHIP is relatively low compared to his ERA. Gausman’s 3.30 FIP is even better than Gray's FIP, but like the opposing pitcher, he’s been extremely unlucky thus far this season.
Figure this: Opposing batters are hitting .257 off of Gausman, yet their BABIP is even higher at .344. That means that, given Gausman's 12.11 K/9 ratio, if a batter makes contact, it has a 34% chance of being a hit. That’s tough considering the whiff rate he’s generating on his strikeouts against opposing hitters.
Over the long run, I would expect these numbers to start to balance out, and a competitive matchup tonight could serve as the elixir.
Betting Analysis
I'm sure that both of these pitchers are left scratching their head when they look at their overall numbers. Both have been extremely unlucky, and I'm willing to wager that's about to turn around.
On my to-do list is to query the over/under at Coors Field once September hits. Yesterday, even with a strong offensive team like the San Diego Padres, the under never seemed in doubt, and I think we get a similar scenario tonight. We've even got a slight wind blowing in from the northeast — that is, right-center field — at five miles per hour.
Both of Gausman's starts on the road this season have gone under, while Gray is 1-2-1 to the under when pitching at home against the Giants in his career.
This should be a competitive ball game with both pitchers focused going in. DraftKings and BetMGM each list the under at 12 runs, and that's right within my threshold. I'll gladly risk a half-unit that this stays under and hope we get as close to a pitching duel in Coors Field as possible tonight.
The Pick: Game total under 12 runs (-107). Risk: 0.5 units. Play down to 11.5.
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