Baseball betting is one of a kind. Each day diving into a full slate is grueling and sometimes edges are nowhere to be found within a side or total. But opportunities to fade pitchers at a lesser degree remains a constant. One of the areas in which I've tapped into this season has been the player prop market. More specifically, looking at hitters and their total bases/home runs props.
Whether it's a positive split or the wind blowing out in double-digit force, there's always opportunities to back some of MLB's best hitters to find the outfield seats. These bets are rarely not (+) money and home run props can often reach the 6-700 mark, providing plenty of value at a small cost.
That leads us to my new regular feature here at Action Network: DiSturco's Triple 7s. In each article, I will give out my three favorite total bases props and pair that with the odds for those same players to hit a home run.
The idea of Triple 7s comes from the slot machines. That's the ultimate jackpot and it's important to note the rarity of notching that feat. Similar to slots, parlaying all three players below to hit a home run is nothing more than a lottery ticket.
It's important to bet responsibly, and while I do bet every player o1.5 TBs (.5u) and to hit a HR (.1u), you shouldn't overextend yourself with a parlay of all three. It's a long shot for a reason.
But if you're feeling confident or have no plans and want to try and hit Triple 7s, pull the lever and cross your fingers. Today's lottery ticket comes with +17180 odds.
Visit our MLB Props page for a full list of props and odds for every player on the MLB slate each and every day.
Alec Bohm, Phillies
Diamondbacks vs. Phillies, 6:40 p.m. ET
Opposing starting pitcher: Tommy Henry (LHP)
One of my favorite matchups today is Alec Bohm against Tommy Henry.
Over the last two seasons, Bohm has solidified himself as a lefty killer. In 2022 he hit .352 with a .935 OPS, and 40% of hits went for extra bases. This year, he’s started out slowly but has three home runs — of his five — and a still-impressive .490 slugging against southpaws.
Bohm’s HR/FB rate is back in the double-digits this season and has seen a slight uptick in FB%. Against left-handed pitching, he’s been striking out significantly less and has seen his hard-hit rate jump back above 45%.
Given his success against left-handed pitching and recent success against southpaws, Bohm is a perfect total bases candidate tonight. Henry does not strike out batters and has a barrel rate and xSLG that ranks in the bottom 35% of all pitchers.
Henry has given up three home runs in his last two starts and has given up XBH to right-handed hitters on 43% of hits. All four home runs have come against righties, too.
I placed .5u on Bohm’s over 1.5 TBs (+128) prop at BetRivers and .1u on HR (+540) at FanDuel.
Freddie Freeman, Dodgers
Dodgers vs. Braves, 7:20 p.m. ET
Opposing starting pitcher: Charlie Morton (RHP)
There are few players as in rhythm as Freddie Freeman right now. The Dodgers offense has been playing much better of late and Will Smith’s bat in the lineup takes plenty of pressure off Freeman.
The lefty has once again dominated over the opening two months. His barrel rate is 12% — his highest since 2020 — and his xBA (.330) and xSLG (.591) are both inside the top 2% of all hitters.
Freeman draws a familiar matchup with Charlie Morton, a pitcher I am looking to fade the rest of this season. In his career, Freeman is 8-for-15 with a pair of doubles and home runs against Morton.
I expect negative regression out of Morton, who has an xERA over 1.5 runs higher than actual. His xSLG (.420) is a career low, too.
Freeman has a hit in 11 straight games and has gone for 2+ bases in eight of them. He has three home runs and has seen his wOBA, ISO and hard-hit% all increase significantly in this span.
Similar to Bohm, I am placing .5u on Freeman's over 1.5 total bases prop (+115) at BetMGM and adding .1u on HR (+500) at Caesars.
Tesocar Hernandez, Mariners
Athletics vs. Mariners, 9:40 p.m. ET
Opposing starting pitcher: Kyle Muller (LHP)
One of the worst pitchers on Monday night’s slate comes in Seattle where Kyle Muller takes the mound for Oakland. The left-hander has been torn apart in the first two months of the season.
His xERA sits at 7.55 and he ranks in the bottom 5% of all pitchers in xBA (.326), xSLG (.543) and hard-hit rate (50.3%). His barrel rate is above 11 percent and his strikeout rate also sits in the bottom 10 percentile.
Muller has given up a home run in seven consecutive starts and doesn’t generate chases or swings-and-misses. Enter Teoscar Hernandez, who has been hitting the ball extremely well of late.
Hernandez ranks inside the top 20% of hitters in barrel and hard-hit rate. His biggest issue comes with swings and misses. That shouldn’t be an issue against Muller, who sits in the low 90s and has seen a noticeable decrease in velocity from last season.
Hernandez was a left-handed killer last season, with eight home runs, nine doubles and a .978 OPS. A whopping 65% of all hits went for extra bases. While his OPS against left-handed pitching is down a touch in 2023 (.799), Hernandez still has four home runs and a double — 50% of hits for extra bases — in 41 at-bats.
He enters with hits in eight of his last nine and has been seeing the ball a lot better at the plate. Given his prior success against lefties and his barrel/hard-hit rate remaining high, I’m expecting Hernandez to get back on track against Muller tonight.
And if Muller is taken out, the Athletics own the worst bullpen in baseball. That’s a plus for Hernandez, the free-swinging power righty.
I bet him to surpass 1.5 total bases (+115) and to hit a HR (+400), both of which are at FanDuel.
DiSturco's Triple 7s Home Run Bets for Monday, May 22
- Alec Bohm
- Freddie Freeman
- Tesocar Hernandez
If you like all three plays and want to try a spin at hitting triple 7s, a $10 parlay of these three home run props at FanDuel comes in at $1,718.
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