After a few days off, I am back with MLB NRFI picks for the MLB slate on Tuesday.
I have three MLB NRFI picks and predictions on Tuesday, September 10, for Mets vs Blue Jays, Guardians vs White Sox and Cubs vs Dodgers.
MLB NRFI & YRFI Predictions for Tuesday, September 10
Billy Ward's Mets vs. Blue Jays NRFI Prediction
Starting Pitchers: David Peterson vs. Chris Bassitt
David Peterson's elite first time through the order numbers are doing a lot of heavy lifting in my projections.
He comes into this game with a very strong 2.75 overall ERA, but that number drops to 1.16 his first time through the order. That gives us a reasonable level of confidence that the Blue Jays should stay off the board early.
There's a bit more risk on the other side, with Chris Bassitt coming in with a good-not-great 3.39 first time through the order ERA. However, this is a pretty solid price on a mostly one-sided NRFI.
Billy Ward's Guardians vs. White Sox NRFI Prediction
Starting Pitchers: Ben Lively vs. Jonathan Cannon
This is another contest with a low-juice NRFI despite one team providing very little chance of ruining the bet.
That team would be, of course, the White Sox. They're the worst offense in baseball by a comfortable margin, and taking on a solid starter in Ben Lively (2.63 first time through the order ERA.)
I'm a bit wary the Cleveland side against Cannon as it's implied for roughly five runs as a team tonight. With that said, Cannon has solid early game numbers (3.03 ERA), as one would expect from a converted reliever.
The Guardians offense isn't especially potent either, ranking 19th in wRC+ against righties.
Billy Ward's Dodgers vs. Cubs YRFI Prediction
Starting Pitchers: Shota Imanaga vs. Yoshinobu Yamamoto
A couple things about this game immediately piqued my interest.
First, we're getting an even-money YRFI in a Dodgers game. Their first three hitters all have wRC+ numbers of 140 or better, with above-average four and five hitters as well. It's not the best pitching matchup against Imanaga — but it might not matter for the Dodgers.
Second, this is the first game back for Yoshinobu Yamamoto after missing nearly two months with an injury. Yamamoto struggled early in games even when healthy (4.40 first time through the order ERA), and could conceivably have significant rust after such a long layoff.
The Cubs have a solid offense as well, increasing the equity on that side. Not bad for an even-money YRFI.
