We finished last week on a down note, going 1-2 on Sunday.
Still, it was a good week, and we finished up around five units in total.
Let's get back to it with three MLB NRFI & YRFI bets and model predictions for Monday, June 3.
MLB NRFI & YRFI Bets: Monday Model Picks & Predictions
Blue Jays vs Orioles
Starting Pitchers: Grayson Rodriguez vs. Kevin Gausman
This game is a perfect example of what my model was built to catch.
It has a fairly low 7.5-run total, thanks to two starting pitchers with solid overall numbers. However, both starters tend to be better once they get into a groove, with some struggles early in games.
Rodriguez is an extreme example, with a 5.94 xFIP his first time through the order but just 3.89 overall. Gausman is 3.39 early and 3.25 overall, but this is still an example of "reverse splits" since most pitchers tend to be better at the start of games.
They both also have xERAs slightly higher than their ERAs, so some regression overall is due.
The plus-money line on this bet is enough to make it worth taking.
Cardinals vs Astros
Starting Pitchers: Kyle Gibson vs. Justin Verlander
This is another plus-money YRFI driven by a starting pitcher who struggles early in games.
In this case, it's Gibson, who has a first-time through-the-order ERA that is a full run higher than his overall mark, with his xFIP also rising early in games.
He has a tough matchup with the impressive top of the Houston lineup, who are projecting very well in this matchup.
Verlander is also at risk of allowing a run here. While his ERA is an excellent 3.26, his xFIP is more than a full run higher. He doesn't have the early-game issues of Gibson, but is due for some general regression.
Both teams are also on the correct side of their platoon splits in this matchup, with Houston a top-five offense against right-handed pitching.
Padres vs. Angels
Starting Pitchers: Matt Waldron vs. Tyler Anderson
While the total is a bit higher at 8.5 runs, almost everything else is pointing to the NRFI.
Both teams are on the wrong side of their pronounced platoon splits, with the Padres taking on the lefty Anderson and the Angels against a righty.
San Diego's wRC+ drops thirty points against lefties compared to righties, while the Angels lose 28.
Waldron has a 4.26 overall ERA, but leading indicators in the low-to-mid threes, while Anderosn's 2.47 ERA drops to 1.54 his first time through the order.
