Another sweep on Sunday brings the winning streak to 16, for a total profit of 23 units this season.
The run won't last forever, but let's try to find a few more winners today.
I have three MLB NRFI & YRFI picks and model predictions for Monday, May 20.
MLB NRFI & YRFI Picks: Monday May 20
Starting Pitchers: Jose Berrios vs. Erick Fedde
This NRFI is a bit pricey, but it's still worth playing, even if you can't catch the outlier number.
The game has just a 7.5-run total and features two bottom-ten MLB offenses.
The Blue Jays' Berrios hasn't been as good as his 2.86 ERA, but he faces the worst offense in baseball. Furthermore, his 3.32 expected FIP the first time through the order is about a run better than his overall number.
While Toronto is a better offense — particularly at the top — they get a more challenging pitching matchup in Fedde. He enters the matchup with a 0.90 ERA his first time through the order and a still-strong 2.75 expected FIP.
Starting Pitchers: Dean Kremer vs. Sonny Gray
This is another line that's a bit juiced but still worth playing because of the underlying numbers of both pitchers.
Gray has been a revelation for the Cardinals this season, with a 3.05 overall ERA that drops to 2.12 his first time through the order. His underlying numbers are also solid, with his expected FIP in both situations in the low twos.
Kremer hasn't been as good overall, with a still-strong 3.72 ERA. However, he's been elite in starting games, with a 0.89 ERA his first time through the order. He also doesn't need to be as good against a Cardinals offense that's struggled without their best hitter, Willson Contreras.
I don't love paying this price for the NRFI in a game with an eight-run total, but the under is getting some steam and has moved to 7.5 at some books, which means the NRFI will get even more expensive.
Starting Pitchers: Reid Detmers vs. Framber Valdez
It's a lefty-on-lefty pitching matchup in Houston tonight, which is good news for both offenses.
Houston sees their wRC+ as a team rise from 114 against righties to 123, while the Angels go from 96 to 114.
That's a big part of the justification for the YRFI, given the game has just an eight-run total, and the Angels are a relatively poor offense overall. Both pitchers have been solid this year, though Valdez has a considerably higher expected FIP his first time through the order than overall.
Most of the value is on the favored Astros, whose top-of-the-order is elite. Still, the Angels contribute just enough to make this worth playing at even money rather than the Houston team-specific line.
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