We went 1-1 yesterday, turning a slight profit thanks to the winning pick coming at +115. Let's try to improve on that record today.
I have two more MLB NRFI and YRFI picks and predictions for Thursday, August 22.
MLB NRFI & YRFI Picks for Thursday, August 22
Billy Ward's Reds vs. PiratesNRFI/YRFI Bet
Starting Pitchers: Nick Lodolo vs. Paul Skenes
The Reds and the Pirates both rank in the bottom six in the MLB against right handed pitching this season, with Pittsburgh ahead of only the White Sox.
That automatically makes this a solid NRFI situation, especially with Paul Skenes and his 1.45 first time through the order ERA on the mound for Pittsburgh.
Lodolo is better (for NRFIs) than his overall numbers indicate as well, with a 4.17 ERA and 3.01 xFIP his first time through the order. Since he plays home games at one of the more hitter-friendly parks in baseball, it's reasonable to expect some regression towards his xFIP when he's on the road in Pittsburgh.
Plus, we have the better pitcher taking on the better offense, which always makes this bet a bit more comfortable.
Try to grab the -130 at Caesars if you can, as it's a considerably better price than elsewhere in the market. Past -140 or so, I'd look to use this as a parlay piece of some sort.
Billy Ward's Mets vs. Padres NRFI/YRFI Bet
Starting Pitchers: Dylan Cease vs. Luis Severino
This game is projecting a bit better for the NRFI than the one above, thanks to even stronger first time through the order splits from both starting pitchers (at least in terms of xFIP).
Both offenses are better as well which makes it a bit scary, but the 7.5-run total is juiced to the under, and some books still have 7.0.
We get the added benefit of this game being in San Diego, the second-hardest park to score runs at in the MLB. That helps balance out the strong offenses involved, with relatively pitcher-friendly weather as well.
