We have another full slate of baseball on this Tuesday, with games spread throughout the evening and a number of key games with serious postseason implications.
Our analysts are on three games from today's slate: Red Sox vs. Rays, Reds vs. Cubs and White Sox vs. Mariners. We have a run line, first five and moneyline underdog to recommend.
Here are our three best bets from tonight's Major League Baseball slate.
MLB Odds & Picks
Red Sox vs. Rays
Jules Posner: Drew Rasmussen has been one of the best home pitchers this season. That became much more evident when he took a perfect game into the ninth inning during his August 14th start at home against the Baltimore Orioles.
While expecting that kind of length out of Rasmussen is unwise, it is wise to back someone with a 1.97 ERA and a 2.58 FIP at home this season.
The Red Sox offense has been above average against RHP on the road this season, but the main reason to back the Rays' run line is because Red Sox starter, Rich Hill, does not work deep into games very often and the Red Sox bullpen has been a very bad unit as of late.
Although Hill is pitching in his stronger split, the Rays have been one of the better home offenses against LHP over the past month. Pair this with a shaky Sox bullpen and it seems the best value of the night is the Rays' run line.
While the line movement has shifted in some books from the +120 range to a seeming consensus of +135, this could be a really good reward for some risk. Tracking line movement overnight, the Rays were +140 on DraftKings, but moved to +135 by the morning. So there seems to be mixed signals around the run line.
However, the Rays still seem to have a considerable edge in Tuesday night's match up. Since their moneyline is beyond -150, take the run line while it's in a pretty nice plus-money situation.
Reds vs. Cubs
Sean Zerillo: Justin Dunn (4.63 ERA, 6.46 xERA, 5.10 xFIP) has struggled mightily at the MLB level, posting a career 5.87 xFIP through 30 starts over four seasons between Seattle and Cincinnati.
Projection systems aren't particularly fond of the 26-year-old righty, pegging him for a rest-of-season FIP projection between 5.2 and 5.83.
Conversely, Wade Miley has excelled through four starts this season (3.68 xERA, 4.51 xFIP, 4.82 SIERA) and carries far more optimistic FIP projections (range 4.01-4.49).
Both teams are in their superior offensive split for this matchup. Chicago ranks 17th against righties and 22nd against lefties. Similarly, Cincinnati ranks 21st against lefties and 26th vs. righties.
Despite a substantial starting pitching advantage, I'm only playing the Cubs on the moneyline for the first five innings (F5), which I projected at -194 (66% implied) and which you can bet up to -177 (64% implied) at a two percent edge compared to my number.
Since the trade deadline — when they dealt away multiple key relievers — Chicago ranks 29th in bullpen xFIP, while Cincinnati ranks 11th. Six weeks ago, I would have given the Cubs a substantial bullpen edge in this matchup. Now, I place these bullpens on level terms, with a slight advantage for the Reds, if anything.
White Sox vs. Mariners
DJ James: The Chicago White Sox find themselves in strong positioning for a division crown going into the final stretch of the 2022 regular season, considering where they stood even a week ago. They head to Seattle for a west-coast trip against Logan Gilbert and the Mariners.
The White Sox will start Johnny Cueto, who has been a miracle-worker, given the injuries plaguing the Sox all season. Cueto has a 2.93 ERA and 3.84 xERA. Yes, he is lucky but mainly this emphasizes his ability to pitch out of jams.
Meanwhile, Gilbert has been a fixture in the Seattle rotation and will be for years to come, with a 3.35 ERA and 4.09 xERA. Cueto gets a slight edge over Gilbert since he limits hard contact more often and can go deeper into a ball game.
This prevents the Chicago middle relief from entering the game. Essentially, Cueto will hand the ball to the core of the Sox bullpen (Liam Hendriks, Kendall Graveman Jake Diekman, and now Aaron Bummer, who returned from the injured list on Monday).
Seattle touts a bullpen xFIP of 3.67, but there is little difference when the back-end comes into this game.
Finally, both teams have a 104 wRC+ off of right-handers in the last month, so the lineups are negligible. With the White Sox hitting well, finally, take them as underdogs to -110.
