It's the penultimate Saturday in the MLB regular season, and it's loaded with matchups with serious postseason implications.
Our analysts have their eyes on two such games: Astros vs. Athletics and Braves vs. Padres.
Here are our two best bets from Saturday's Major League Baseball slate.
MLB Odds & Picks
| 7:15 p.m. ET | |
Astros vs. Athletics
DJ James: The Houston Astros take on the Oakland A’s in the Coliseum to possibly put the final nail in the coffin of the Oakland season. The A’s sit four games back, going into Friday of the second Wild Card slot, and they leave their fate in the hands of Sean Manaea. He will face Framber Valdez of the Astros.
Now, both of these pitchers are pretty comparable lately. Manaea has a 4.50 ERA in September, while Valdez’s September ERA is 4.00. Neither have been particularly sharp, so the pitching matchup is even.
Houston’s lineup has a massive advantage, and this is where the edge comes into play. They own a 150 wRC+ against southpaws in September, while Oakland’s is only 101. Adding in the month of August, Houston still has that advantage at 125 wRC+ to 109 wRC+ for Oakland.
Outside of Michael Brantley, the Astros have everyone in their lineup and seven hit over the 100 wRC+ mark versus lefties in September. Although it is in limited action, five of their hitters are slugging over .500 this month against left-handers, as well. This compares to only three hitters over the 100 wRC+ mark for Oakland and three slugging over .500.
Give the edge in the lineups to Houston. Take them at -120 and play to -145.
Braves vs. Padres
| 7:15 p.m. ET |
Collin Whitchurch: The Padres are desperately seeking arms to eat innings as they wrap up their September collapse, and have turned to recently released Phillies arm Vince Velasquez.
The 29-year-old has made two starts for San Diego and they haven't gone well. His first time out against the Cardinals, he allowed four runs in four innings. Most recently, he lasted just one inning against the Giants.
The Braves' offense has been clicking as they look to find off Philadelphia for the NL West crown. Back-to-back series against the Diamondbacks and fading Padres have helped, and they should feast on Velasquez today.
I like Atlanta's moneyline (-120) as well as its first five innings moneyline (-110) and will be betting both, but the best value presents itself in the form of the first five innings team total.
The Braves should get over that mark against Velasquez and whoever else the Padres trot out behind him, so at plus money, over 2.5 is the play. I would bet it to +100.
