Mets vs. Phillies Odds
| Mets Odds | -100 |
| Phillies Odds | -120 |
| Over/Under | 8 |
| Time | Saturday, 6:05 p.m. ET |
| TV | MLB.TV |
| Odds as of Friday and via PointsBet | |
Friday night’s matchup between the New York Mets and Philadelphia Phillies featured a common theme for both teams: a lack of offense.
The Phillies took a commanding one-game lead atop the National League East at 13-13. It’s been an incredibly underwhelming start for every team in that division.
Friday night’s matchup brings Taijuan Walker facing off against Zack Wheeler. The two right-handers are off to fantastic starts to the season and could be in for big nights.
Let's break down where the value lies in this game.
New York Mets
If Walker pitches like he did in his first four starts of the season for all of 2021, the Mets will have won free agency. He has allowed six runs (five earned) over 21 innings, spanning four starts.
Having struggled with arm injuries and made just four starts from 2018-19, Walker proved last season that his stuff still plays and is undeniably very good. His 2.14 ERA is fantastic, and his 3.04 FIP is still very impressive.
Walker faced the Phillies back on April 13 and allowed one run over 4 1/3 innings. His pitch count got too high, and he was removed after striking out eight.
In his last outing, the right-hander threw seven scoreless innings and 95 pitches. He is primed to pitch as deep into the game as the results will allow him to.
The Mets’ lineup came into the season poised to blow up with the addition of Francisco Lindor, but their .667 OPS ranks 26th in MLB. There are plenty of left-handed hitters who should be thriving against righties, but they’ve only scored 58 runs in 22 games.
Philadelphia Phillies
Wheeler finished his time with the Mets in very promising fashion with a 3.65 ERA and 3.37 FIP from 2018-19. He has been even better for the Phillies, though.
In 16 starts since signing with Philadelphia before last season, Wheeler has a 2.98 ERA and 3.35 FIP. He is not a dominant strikeout pitcher, although he is up to 9.9 K’s per nine innings this season after just 6.7 in 2020. He’s allowing fewer hits and more walks per nine innings this season, but the results are very similar to last year.
Since joining the Phillies, Wheeler has a 3.71 ERA against his former club in four starts, including allowing three runs over 6 1/3 innings earlier this season. He did throw eight innings of one-run ball in a winning effort his last time out against the Cardinals on Monday.
The Phillies’ rotation appears to be a three-headed monster this season, consisting of Wheeler, Aaron Nola and Zach Eflin. If the trio keeps pitching as well as they are so far in 2021, Philly will make some noise in the National League East.
Philadelphia’s lineup has also been a three-headed monster. (You could say four-headed, but Jean Segura is on the 10-day injured list.) Rhys Hoskins has eight home runs already this season, while J.T. Realmuto has a .932 OPS and Bryce Harper is lighting the world on fire at 1.063.
Of course, Harper’s status for this game is uncertain. He was hit in the face by a pitch against the Cardinals on Wednesday and missed Friday night’s game because he was in concussion protocols. Without him, the Phillies will be relying on Realmuto and Hoskins for any offense, if the start to 2021 is any indication for the rest of the lineup.
After Friday’s game, the Phillies ranked 21st in MLB with a .678 OPS. And now they don’t have Harper, and they were without Realmuto in the lineup on Friday night. The catcher will definitely be back, but the majority of the lineup is still struggling.
Philadelphia could get some help with the return of Segura at some point this weekend. His OPS is over .800 in 17 games this season and would provide a big boost, although, again, he can’t get everybody else going by himself.
Mets-Phillies Pick
With both starters thriving and able to pitch deep into the game, combined with both struggling offenses, I see no reason why I should expect either team to thrive offensively. This seems pretty straightforward, and we’re going to back the under.
Pick: Under 8 runs
