Thursday's afternoon MLB slate is loaded, but there are still three intriguing matchups this evening.
While the night is light, our analysts have found value on two of the games, including Orioles vs. White Sox and Phillies vs. Padres.
Here are our two best bets from Thursday evening's Major League Baseball slate.
MLB Odds & Picks
Balitmore Orioles vs. Chicago White Sox
| White Sox Team Total Over 4.5 (-120) | |
DJ James: The Chicago White Sox have one of the hottest offenses in baseball over the last week. They have scored at least five runs in seven of the last nine games, and six of these games took place against the Toronto Blue Jays and the Houston Astros.
In June, they have significantly approved their results (and expected results) off of right-handed pitching. This was one of their main cruxes early in the season, which has led them to be trailing both the Cleveland Guardians and the Minnesota Twins in the American League Central.
However, in June, they have a 110 wRC+ off of righties. Dean Kremer will throw for the Baltimore Orioles, and he has a 3.63 xERA against a 2.35 ERA, so there is room for negative regression. He is about league average in average exit velocity, but considering how the Sox have done lately, they should be able to take advantage of any shortcomings.
Baltimore has also underachieved in the bullpen, so the White Sox should tack on a few late-inning runs, as well. Since the Orioles have three southpaws in relief, Chicago will have the opportunity to exploit a true edge.
Take the team total over for the White Sox from 4.5 (-120) to 5 (-110).
Philadelphia Phillies vs. San Diego Padres
| Phillies +139 | |
Tanner McGrath: Joe Musgrove is an astounding pitcher having a career year. He's a guy who just fills up the strike zone, forces outs and eats up innings. He’s accumulated the fifth-best fWAR of any NL pitcher (2.4), posting a 1.59 ERA over 79 innings in the process.
As a result, Musgrove is a perfect 8-0 while the Padres are 11-1 in his starts this season.
Because of this hot streak, bettors are pouring money on the Padres in Musgrove starts. Padres ML is getting 84% of the tickets at the time of this writing, and the squares are eating.
But there must be a stop point, where Musgrove and Co. are finally overvalued in the market.
I believe this is that point.
The Phillies are a high-upside offense (think Bryce Harper and Nick Castellanos) with a high-upside pitcher in Ranger Suarez. Suarez is struggling this season (4.43 ERA, 4.17 xFIP), but we all remember what he was capable of last season.
Besides, Musgrove’s 3.07 xFIP shows he’s due for some negative regression, and we need to serious devalue the Padres' lineup with Manny Machado sidelined.
Phillies ML today has lit up four signals on The Action Network App, including Big Money and Sharp Money. It also triggers one of our PRO systems, Contrarian Betting Against Good Teams, which has an 11% ROI over a 1,381-game sample size.
You can still get the Phillies ML at +139 at WynnBET, and I’m looking to play them somewhere in the +135 range.
