Another action-packed MLB Saturday is upon us, and there's a whopping 17 games to bet on today including a pair of doubleheaders.
Our analysts are on three of those matchups, including a player prop, underdog, and run line. We have bets on Rays vs. Tigers, Red Sox vs. Royals and Rockies vs. Diamondbacks.
Here are our three best bets from Saturday's Major League Baseball slate.
MLB Odds & Picks
Rays vs. Tigers
Doug Ziefel: Detroit has been a lineup to attack with strikeout props all season long as they have been in the top 10 in team strikeout rate. However, they’ve struck out at an even higher rate in the second half as they hold the third highest mark since the All-Star break.
Shane McClanahan should be drooling over this matchup. McClanahan comes into this one fourth in the majors in strikeouts for the season and he has a strikeout rate in the top three percent of the league.
Believe it or not, this total may be a bit too low for McClanahan. He’s gone over this number in 55 percent of his starts this season which gives us -122 implied odds that he will go over again. With how bad Detroit has been, he has double-digit strikeout upside here.
Red Sox vs. Royals
Sean Zerillo: While the Royals have some nice-looking young bats in Bobby Witt Jr., MJ Melendez, Vinnie Pasquantino, and Nick Pratto, they haven't been as proficient at developing young starting pitching.
However, former first-round picks Brady Singer (3.75 xERA) and Daniel Lynch (4.22 xERA, 4.26 xFIP, 4.17 SIERA) are having breakout seasons, and both could be a part of their next winning team.
Lynch has seen a slight velocity increase for the season — adding a tick to his fastball (94.5 mph in his last start) relative to both earlier this year and 2021 (averaged 93.7 mph). And he's used that fastball more aggressively of late — selecting the pitch at a 60% clip in his last three starts, compared to 44% in his previous starts.
Aside from a shaky June 22 outing against the Angels (4 2/3 IP, 5 BB, 5 K), Lynch has hit another level in his past six starts (28 IP, 11 BB, 37 K, 2.98 xFIP) and remains undervalued in the betting markets.
Nathan Eovaldi (4.19 xERA, 3.36 xFIP, 3.45 SIERA) is an odd pitcher to handicap. He offers solid strikeout numbers, good command, and a healthy groundball rate, but has had a home run issue that crops up from time to time (1.35 HR/9, 15% HR/FB rate since 2016).
Since allowing five homers to the Astros on May 17, Eovaldi has pitched to a 3.91 ERA, 2.92 FIP, and 3.24 xFIP in nine starts (46 IP) — while allowing 0.78 HR/9. When he can avoid the long ball, he's a rock-solid No. 2 starter.
While the Royals have been relatively punchless this season (88 HR, 27th in MLB), since adding Pasquantino to the lineup in late June, they rank closer to mid-pack offensively (101 wrC+, 18th) and 21st in homers (31).
In this matchup, I projected the Royals as +105 underdogs, and I would bet their moneyline down to +114. You can also play their first-five innings (F5) moneyline down to +113 or better.
Rockies vs. Diamondbacks
Jules Posner: Merrill Kelly has not surrendered an earned run in his two post All-Star break starts. He'll get to take on a Rockies offense that has been middle-of-the-pack against RHP on the road over the past couple of weeks, but Kelly has only given up two earned runs to the Rockies in his two starts against them this season.
Antonio Senzatela will be his opposition and he has struggled mightily on the road in 2022. He has a 6.16 ERA, and while his peripherals indicate he's been a little unlucky, a little is not a lot. Plus, the Diamondbacks have one of the more underrated home offenses against RHP. They have a bunch of tough left-handed bats throughout their lineup and the match up looks like a good opportunity for them to put up some runs.
Additionally, the Rockies' bullpen has been in complete disarray over the past month and they don't really have any reliable left-handed options to upset the Diamondbacks' platoon advantage.
The Diamondbacks' run line is in plus money and it should be taken as it seems the books are sleeping on their potent home offense. The Snakes also moved one game over .500 at home with their victory last night and the Rockies have dropped to 17-35 on the road.
If the D'backs' run line is in plus money, take that all day.
