It's another busy Wednesday in Major League Baseball. There are a handful of games getting going this afternoon with a loaded slate this evening, too.
Our analysts are, predictably, all over this slate. We have six bets on four games, including Rangers vs. Rockies, Reds vs. Phillies, and a pair of picks each on Diamondbacks vs. Royals and Twins vs. Astros.
Here are our six best bets from today's MLB slate.
MLB Odds & Picks
Rangers vs. Rockies
Brad Cunningham: Martin Perez is having an amazing year, as his xERA is at 3.35, which is the best mark of his entire career. Opponents only have a .261 xwOBA (71st percentile) against him, he's only allowing a 4% barrel rate (92nd percentile), and he only has a 34.3% hard hit rate against him (77th percentile).
So even though the Rockies are top five in baseball in wOBA against left-handed pitching, Perez should have a decent matchup.
Jose Urena, on the other hand … well it's bad, but how bad is it? Urena is currently sitting with a 5.33 xERA, which is terrible, but FanGraphs ZIPS rest of season projections have him as a 7.36 ERA pitcher. So is he just bad or the worst pitcher in baseball type of bad? He has one of the lowest K/9 rates for a starting pitcher at 4.71 and his BB/9 is an extremely high 4.40.
The starting pitching matchup definitely favors Texas and the bullpen matchup does as well, as Colorado has the third-worst xFIP in baseball, while the Rangers are sitting in the middle of the pack at 16th.
I have Perez and the Rangers projected at -199, so I think there is tremendous value on them at -122 and would play it up to -170.
Reds vs. Phillies
Brad Cunningham: This one has the potential to get out of hand early.
T.J. Zeuch has only made two starts, so it's not a big enough sample size to go off of, but his ERA is 13.50. Zeuch is a fringe MLB pitcher at best and definitely not a starting pitcher. He's pitched 57 innings in the big leagues and is sporting an xFIP of 5.34, a BB/9 rate of 4.25, and a HR/9 rate of 2.05. The Phillies have been hitting the ball really well as of late with the the fifth best wOBA and wRC+ over the past 30 days.
Cristopher Sanchez comes out of the bullpen to make a spot start for the Phillies tonight. He's made two previous starts this year, only lasting 2 1/3 inngins in one and five in the other.
He has a 4.29 xERA so far this year and FanGraphs ZIPS projections have him as a 4.80 ERA pitcher for the rest of the season. Cincinnati is in the top half of baseball in wOBA against lefties, so is live to plate a few runs early on.
I have 5.8 runs projected for the first five innings, so I like the value on over 4.5 runs at -120 and would play it up to -130.
Diamondbacks vs. Royals
DJ James: Brady Singer and Zac Gallen face off Wednesday evening in an underrated pitching duel. Singer has a 1.88 ERA in the second half for the Kansas City Royals, while Gallen has remained consistent all year for the Arizona Diamondbacks.
That said, Singer still ranks in the 19th percentile in both average exit velocity and hard hit percentage, while Gallen ranks in the 59th percentile in both.
This matters because the Royals, who are a notably weak-hitting baseball team, have a team 80 wRC+ off of right-handers in the month of August. Arizona has a 104 wRC+ off of righties. This does not necessarily mean that the D'backs will trounce Singer, but there is a discrepancy between these two lineups and the starting pitcher they are facing. Gallen is still more predictable and solid, even if Singer is on an upward trajectory.
Bear in mind, Gallen has a 0.92 ERA in the second half, so he is the reliable option here.
Arizona also has posted a sub-4.00 ERA in August against Kansas City’s 4.12 ERA out of the bullpen.
Take Gallen and the Snakes to -140.
Diamondbacks vs. Royals
Tanner McGrath: I’ll always bet the Snakes when Zac Gallen is pitching.
After a tough 2021, Gallen has rebounded and more. He’s allowing fewer walks (2.37 BB/9) and home runs (0.75 HR/9) than ever before, driving a massive drop in his FIP and xFIP. He’s managed to hold his ERA below 3.00 and he’s on pace to post the lowest xERA of his career (3.42).
The Snakes are a remarkable 15-8 with Gallen pitching, including a very profitable 8-4 as a dog.
Gallen will battle a reeling Royals team. They’re 14-19 in the second half with the league’s fourth worst wRC+ (69). Brady Singer is a good starting pitcher, but the Snakes have advantages in the bullpen and on defense.
Arizona has also won its previous three matchups with Kansas City. I'll back the Snakes to do it one more time.
Twins vs. Astros
Jules Posner: The Minnesota Twins are 14-15 without Byron Buxton this season. Additionally, they are 27-31 on the road this season and with Dylan Bundy on the mound, the Houston Astros seem well positioned to cover the spread today.
Framber Valdez's 2.78 FIP and 2.63 xFIP at home this season indicate he's been much better than his 3.51 home ERA would indicate and he'll be taking on a Twins' offense that is without one of their main catalysts in Buxton.
Bundy also seems to have experienced some tough luck on the road as his 4.52 FIP and 4.28 xFIP indicate he should be better than is 5.83 road ERA would indicate. However, he will be taking on an offense that has posted a 138 wRC+ over the past two weeks at home against RHP, good for third in MLB.
While the Astros' bullpen has one of the higher ERAs in the league over the past couple of weeks, their FIP indicates there should be some positive regression on the horizon.
The Astros' run line has remained steady around the -105/-110 range and that should be the play in this matchup. Look for the Astros the jump on Bundy early and hopefully pull off an easy cover Wednesday night.
Twins vs. Astros
Nicholas Martin: Dylan Bundy has pitched to considerably worse splits on the road this season, and will now enter into a matchup against a very formidable side in the Houston Astros hoping to clean up that area of concern.
Bundy has allowed a slug rate of .492 on the road this season, and has allowed a bottom-third xSLG altogether in 2022.
Since the start of last season, Bundy has struck out just 15% of left-handed batters faced, which is certainly a concerning note entering a matchup with Yordan Alvarez.
Bundy has also had a hard time enticing batters to swing at his breaking pitches, with batters swinging at just 38% of his breaking stuff over the last 140 innings.
That's the lowest mark in the majors among pitchers with over 140 innings, and certainly may be part of the problem this season with batters owning a .424 xSLG versus his four-seamer, and a .459 xSLG against his changeup.
Alvarez has slugged .639 against right-handed pitching altogether this season, and Wednesday's matchup certainly seems to be a strong spot for that utter dominance to continue.
