We can now count the day left in the regular season on one hand. While it is a bittersweet task, that only means the magic of the postseason is nearing closer.
However, we're still aiming to finish the season strong. To do so, I'm targeting two starters that the market is very wrong about. So let's dive in and see how we can capitalize on that.
Our Action Labs Props Tool grades each prop on a scale from 1-10, and I'll be sure to include the grade for each of my betting recommendations in my discussions below.
Drew Hutchison Under 16.5 Pitching Outs -120
| Twins vs. Detroit | Twins -130 |
| First Pitch | 6:10 pm ET |
| Best Line | DraftKings |
This line is just preposterous. Yes, Hutchison has shown some flashes from time to time as he transitioned from the bullpen to the rotation back in May, but he's never been trusted to see a lineup three times.
He has gone under this total in 15 of his 17 starts this season. So that gives us implied odds of -750 that he will go under the total again today, and that is before we factor in the matchup.
Despite their stumbles down the stretch and ultimate collapse, this Minnesota lineup is very potent. The Twins rank in the top eight in hard-hit rate, average exit velocity, xBA, xSLG and xWOBACON.
Those are all areas where Hutchison has struggled in. He ranks in the bottom 15 percent of all qualified pitchers in each of the categories mentioned above, except for hard-hit rate, which he ranks in the bottom 35 percent.
The Twins are due for a big offensive output, and they could very well make Hutchison the victim of their positive regression and send him to the showers early.
Pick: Under 16.5 Pitching Outs
Shane McClanahan Over 4.5 Strikeouts -105
| Rays vs. Astros | Astros -155 |
| First Pitch | 7:10 pm ET |
| Best Line | DraftKings |
I'm going back to the well here. Shane McClanahan has been roughed up in his last two starts as he has not been all that sharp coming off his injury. However, his stuff is still the same, but his command has not been there. He's issued six walks over his last two outings, which is more than his strikeout total. Although, he's overdue to bounce back in that category.
To give perspective on how low this line is, McClanahan has gone over 4.5 strikeouts in 78.6 percent of his starts, which provides us with staggering implied odds of -366 that he'll go over again.
Now, he has possibly the worst matchup regarding opponents' strikeout rate as the Astros have the lowest rate in the majors over the last two weeks. However, he did face them just two starts ago and had a total of three strikeouts in four innings. Mind you, he had four walks in that outing, so he was far from sharp and did not last long.
I've been waiting for a bounce-back performance, and I think we get it here today as the market is about as low on McClanahan as it's been all season. So I'm willing to buy this dip, and so are our Action Labs projections, which have this over as the top play of the day. Our projections have him pegged for 6.5 strikeouts.
Pick: Over 4.5 Strikeouts
Action Labs Grade: 10
