There's something different about baseball than any other sport: Weather plays a crucial role in daily results.
Whether the forecast shows high winds or cold temperatures, plenty of variables can strengthen or weaken the offenses while helping or hurting the pitchers.
Every day, we keep an eye on the weather forecasts around the MLB, and when the weather makes a difference in our betting for the day, we're here to share our MLB Weather picks for our best bets based on the forecasts.
MLB Weather Picks Today: Take the Over in Nationals vs Phillies
| Nationals Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 +115 | 9 -118o / -104u | +225 |
| Phillies Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 -138 | 9 -118o / -104u | -275 |
During the summer months, I’m always trying to target the hottest weather for over bets because of the strong correlation between high temperatures and high home-run rates. Today, temperatures aren’t exactly jumping off the page, but we still have a few games with warm weather and winds blowing out that we can target for overs.
My favorite game to play the “weather-angle” for today is Nationals at Phillies, where temps are in the mid 80s and winds are blowing out at a bit over 5 mph. I would, to be clear, prefer 90-degree temps and winds blowing out at 15 mph, but in a 197-game sample size of similar weather games to what we’ll we see today, there has been a roughly 15% increase to both runs and home runs.
I’ll take that boost and hope it leads us to an OVER 9.5 runs.
MLB Weather Pick for Friday: Over 9.5 Runs in Nationals vs Phillies
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MLB Weather Forecast Today
Here's a quick look around the rest of MLB at games that have weather conditions that might impact whether games are played or how they play out.
Weather forecasts via my analysis on RotoGrinders' MLB Weather page.
I don't see any chances for rain until after the game ends. Warm with winds blowing out at 5-10 mph, which should mean a bump to bats.
I think this game plays, but there's scattered showers and storms around this evening. A delay is possible at any time. Based on how the radar looks pregame, I may slightly increase the risk odds to say "there's a good chance of a delay" or lower risk chances to say "there's a lower chance of a delay".
Looks to me like the rain pops east of CIN and clears farther east. I'm not expecting trouble, but we'll circle back here to confirm that forecast later today.
One cluster of showers and storms zips through the area tonight, I'll put it at YELLOW for a chance of a delay.
