It was another 1-1 day yesterday, though this time both bets were slightly favored, so we ended up paying some juice. It's been a roughly break-even week; let's see if we can't turn it into a profitable one.
I have three more MLB NRFI and YRFI picks and predictions for Friday, August 23.
MLB NRFI & YRFI Picks for Friday, August 23
Billy Ward's Rockies vs. YankeesNRFI/YRFI Bet
Starting Pitchers: Kyle Freeland vs. Carlos Rodon
This game is projecting as +EV for the regular YRFI, but with the vast majority of the run equity shifted to the Yankees.
They're implied a for a bit over five runs today, nearly two full runs better than the visiting Rockies. While the Yankees aren't the best hitting team against lefties, they still have a formidable top of the order with Aaron Judge and Juan Soto.
Rockies starter Kyle Freeland has ERA and xFIP numbers in the low fours his first time through the order, which isn't horrible but won't be scaring anyone away against a tough offense.
With Colorado one of the bottom teams in the MLB against southpaws and Rodon taking the mound for the Yankees, it makes more sense to take the extra payout on New York's first inning moneyline over their team YRFI, which is just +150. As always with these, I'm playing and recommending this at half of your usual ERFI unit.
Billy Ward's Rangers vs. Guardians NRFI/YRFI Bet
Starting Pitchers: Nathan Eovaldi vs. Tanner Bibee
This game has a 7.5-run implied total and two pitchers with at least solid early-game numbers. Eovaldi comes into Friday with a 3.50 first time through the order xFIP, while Bibee is at an even better 3.10.
Both teams are also significantly worse against right-handed pitching, with the GuardianswRC+ dropping from 110 against lefties to just 93, and the Rangers with a seven-point drop-off.
That helps the cause here, especially with the team I'm more worried about (Cleveland) showing the bigger discrepancy. Plus, Progressive field is a much tougher run-scoring park than the Rangers' home stadium.
All in all, it's not a massive edge in my models, but with some other positive factors, it's worth taking at -125.
Billy Ward's Diamondbacks vs. Red Sox NRFI/YRFI Bet
Starting Pitchers: Ryne Nelson vs. Brayan Bello
This one opened with a total of 9.5 runs, but money has been coming in on the over. Certain books have already pushed it up to 10, while others have the 9.5 line juiced to the over.
That makes this a solid value if we can jump on the YRFI at books that haven't moved yet, as it will likely close at a higher price. I'm showing value here even using the 9.5-run projection and would adjust it further up if the total moves at a majority of books.
Both starters have first time through the order ERAs over 4.00, both teams are on the stronger side of their platoon splits, Fenway Park is the second-best run-scoring park in baseball and the weather boosts offense another 9%.
That's a lot to like here, so jump on the -125 at Caesars while you still can.
