The Boston Red Sox and Baltimore Orioles series holds more playoff stakes than nearly any other series in baseball right now. That's because the Orioles sit 0.5 games behind the Yankees for first place in the AL East.
Boston finds itself in a tough spot, sitting four games behind the Twins for the final wild card spot with a three-game set against Minnesota looming. If the Red Sox can chop the gap to three games before that series begins, then it'll bring a lot more intrigue to that late-season matchup.
Here's Orioles vs. Red Sox MLB parlay picks. This game begins at 7:10 p.m. ET on MLB.TV.
Sean Paul's Orioles vs Red Sox MLB Parlay Picks for Wednesday
- Red Sox ML (-125)
- Rafael Devers 2+ Total Bases (-115)
- Nick Pivetta Over 5.5 Strikeouts (-105)
Parlay Odds: +435
Remember to bet responsibly — this is a long shot for a reason.
Red Sox ML (-125)
Let’s kick off our Orioles vs. Red Sox same game parlay with a side. I’m rolling with the Sox to secure the series victory at home.
So, why Boston?
It's a pure matchup play: The Red Sox are strong against righties and I want to fade pitcher Dean Kremer, who enters with a 4.27 ERA and 4.37 FIP.
While neither Kremer's ERA or FIP is glaringly awful based on where he sits in the Orioles' rotation, I do have some worries about him here. Boston can exploit Kremer's elevated 3.79 BB/9 and 1.21 HR/9.
Although Boston’s wild card chances have dwindled, its offense still ranks around league average, with a 100 wRC+ since August 1. The Red Sox's lineup is very left-handed heavy, so facing a righty like Kremer is a perfect matchup for Boston.
Kremer's poor home run rate could play a monumental role here, as the Red Sox have the third-most homers in baseball since the start of August and play in a very hitter-friendly Fenway Park.
It wasn't all bad for Boston on Tuesday against the O's, as Triston Casas clocked a double off the centerfield wall for an RBI and much-needed base hit. Casas is 3-for-18 in the past week and is hitting below .200 over the past two weeks, but he's the best pure power bat in Boston's lineup.
If he's getting rolling, it makes the Red Sox's lineup deeper and more powerful.
You never quite know which version of Nick Pivetta will come from one start to the next. The veteran righty will either hold the opponent to a couple of earned runs over six innings or allow five or six runs. It feels like there’s no in “decent” start for Pivetta. He’s either great or terrible.
The Canadian-born starter enters with a 4.38 ERA and 4.10 FIP with an impressive 10.73 K/9. It's a bit strange Pivetta isn't better based on his flashes of dominance, but consistency is the name of the game.
I do think starting Pivetta gives the Red Sox a pretty profound advantage in the pitching department — at least from an upside standpoint.
I don’t think the price is correct for this pitching matchup, since Pivetta is pretty underrated and Kremer's upside isn't nearly as strong in a single start compared to his opponent.
Rafael Devers 2+ Total Bases (-115)
I may be on an island here, but Rafael Devers is still the Red Sox's best hitter. But it doesn't seem like people realize that.
The emergence of Jarren Duran has overshadowed Devers a bit, but he's still a power-hitting player at a premium position who boasts a 140 wRC+. That puts Devers as the 13th-best hitter in baseball this year and the best hitting third baseman.
Things haven’t gone right for Devers in the past month, as he's hitting just .216 in his past 30 games with a wRC+ below 80 since August.
The good news is that Devers collected three hits in the series opener against the Orioles and another hit yesterday. It seems like Devers is getting hot, so I’ll gladly look to capitalize while his stock remains on the lower end.
The interesting thing about Kremer is he's fairly even in how he records outs. He strikes out opponents on 22% of his outs, forces ground balls on 41% of his outs and forces fly balls on 37% of his outs.
That's more evenly split than most pitchers, so there's not a real angle to follow from that standpoint. I will say, Kremer allows more slugging to lefties as 10 of his 15 homers have come against left-handed bats.
Devers must be salivating at this matchup, and just one extra-base hit is good enough for the prop to hit.
Also, Devers has found some success in his career against Kremer, hitting a pair of homers and going over two-plus total bases in four of his nine career games against him.
Nick Pivetta Over 5.5 Strikeouts (-105)
I already spent time discussing my affinity for Pivetta, so it's only fitting that I finish the SGP off with a Pivetta-based prop.
If I'm banking on the Red Sox getting the good version of Pivetta, then he’ll likely rack up a fair amount of strikeouts. His strikeout prop sits at 5.5 right now, which seems relatively light since he’s gone over that number in three of his past four outings.
It’s worth noting that one of those three starts came versus the Orioles; Pivetta hit six strikeouts on the dot. With his 10.9 K/9, 89th-percentile strikeout percentage and an elite four-seamer/sweeper combo to top things off, Pivetta is dangerous.
The Orioles are no stranger to punching out as they rank 15th in the MLB with a 23% strikeout rate in the past month. They struck out five times against Brayan Bello on Monday and then six times against Kutter Crawford on Tuesday.
Both Crawford and Bello don't generate as many of their outs via the strikeout as Pivetta does.
Two Orioles batters are more strikeout prone than the others. That's a pair of rookie lefties: Colton Cowser, who's struck out 36% of the time since August 15, and Jackson Holliday, who's striking out 31% of the time in that span and looks overmatched.
If Pivetta can get a couple of strikeouts from the strikeout-prone hitters, then he'll need just a few more to push the prop over.
