Orioles vs. Yankees Odds
| Orioles Odds | +220 |
| Yankees Odds | -270 |
| Over/Under | 8 (-114 / -106) |
| Time | 7:05 p.m. ET |
| TV | MLB.TV |
What a start to the season for the New York Yankees. The Bronx Bombers hold the best record in baseball at 29-12. They have allowed the fewest runs in the league and have scored the fifth most runs.
Shockingly, the team in last place in the AL East is tied for the most wins of any team this season against the Yankees. The Orioles have beaten the Yankees three times this season in the first 10 meetings.
However, all three of those wins came in Baltimore at their joke of a stadium. Monday’s game will take place in New York, where the Yankees swept the O’s at the end of April.
Orioles' Lyles Has Been Solid
Baltimore's Jordan Lyles (RHP) get the start on Monday and he is tied for the team lead with three quality starts this season. Through eight outings, he is 2-4 with a 4.11 ERA. Over three of his last four starts he has gone at least six innings and allowed two runs or fewer.
Lyles throws five pitches, a fastball (47.8%), slider (25%), sinker (19.8%), changeup (15.6%) and curveball (11.8%). He is throwing his fastball less often than he ever has and his slider and changeup more than ever. It makes sense after his fastball has been crushed the last two years.
While most people point to strikeouts as the Yankees' weakness, it is actually Baltimore who has been striking out constantly this season. The Orioles have the fourth-most punch outs in the league. They average more the nine strikeouts per game.
Only Anthony Santander and Austin Hayes have a wRC+ over 125 for the Orioles. Trey Mancini got off to a slow start but has a .926 OPS over the last two weeks. Over the top 12 plate appearance leaders on the Orioles, eight of them have a K% of at least 20%.
Cole, Offense Cruising For Yankees
After stumbling out of the gate a little bit, Gerrit Cole (RHP) remembered he is one of the best pitchers on the planet. The Yankees have won his last five starts, with Cole posting a 1.67 ERA and 2.22 xFIP. He has totaled 39 strikeouts and allowed just six runs.
Cole’s strikeout rate is down a touch compared to the last four years but he has countered that with his highest groundball rate since 2017. Cole continues to blow his fastball by opposing hitters, generating a 34% whiff rate, one of the highest among all pitchers.
The Bronx Bombers have done just that this season. They lead the entire league in wRC+ and sit second in wOBA. They are second in the league with 57 home runs. The most promising sign is that New York is just 19th in strikeout rate.
Three Yankees rank in the top seven in home runs this season. Anthony Rizzo is seventh with 10, Giancarlo Stanton ranks fourth with 11, and Aaron Judge leads the league with 15 homers, three more than anybody else. Judge is second in the league with a 1.065 OPS.
Orioles-Yankees Pick
We just saw this pitching matchup last week, in what amounted to a pitcher’s duel in Baltimore. Cole and Lyles each last seven innings and allowed just two earned runs. Lyles allowed one unearned run which resulted in a 3-2 Yankees win.
Weirdly enough, this will already be the fourth time that Lyles has faced the Yankees this season. He is 0-2 and has allowed 10 runs in 17 innings. He has surrendered three home runs while striking out 15.
Sunday’s doubleheader sweep marks just the first time since the opening weekend that the Yankees lost two in a row. I don’t expect them to drop a third straight, especially with Cole on the bump. They are 7-1 in Cole’s starts this year.
New York's lineup has seen plenty of Lyles this season and I expect them to jump on him early. The Yankees have a .328 wOBA against him and he has a 4.08 FIP against the Yankees roster.
Stanton is 7-for-15 against Lyles and somehow his .577 xwOBA is even higher than his .526 wOBA. Rizzo had two home runs against him early the year as well.
This is such a hard game to bet given the huge moneyline. I have no interest in backing Baltimore, so I will instead target the Yankees team total at 4.5 and would play it down to -135.
Pick: Yankees Team Total over 4.5 (-125)
