Orioles vs. Yankees Prediction
| Orioles Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
+118 | 8.5 -105 / -115 | +1.5 -176 |
| Yankees Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
-138 | 8.5 -105 / -115 | -1.5 +146 |
Let's dive into the MLB odds and make an Orioles vs Yankees prediction in our Thursday MLB betting preview for June 20.
Orioles vs Yankees odds for Thursday have the Yankees as -135 moneyline favorites with an over/under of 8.5 (-120o / +100u) for the series finale at Yankee Stadium. For my Orioles vs Yankees prediction, I will be looking at a different market — I see value on New York's run line (-1.5).
Left-hander Cole Irvin takes the mound for Baltimore, while New York hands the ball to right-hander Luis Gil.
See how I think Orioles vs Yankees will play out in my MLB betting preview.
Baltimore Orioles
Irvin has put together a solid year, posting a 6-3 record with a 3.03 ERA and 1.23 WHIP through 13 appearances on the mound. However, his analytics suggest that steep regression is looming as he sports a 4.38 xERA and ranks in the bottom 28th percentile in xBA, average exit velocity, barrel rate and hard-hit rate.
This expected regression is likely to occur against New York, a team Irvin is 0-2 against through three career meetings with a fade-worthy 8.31 ERA and 1.62 WHIP. Baltimore lost each of those three games by at least a two-run margin.
Meanwhile, Irvin is unlikely to receive much run support as the Orioles are slated to go against Gil. Through 35 combined career plate appearances against the right-hander, this current Orioles lineup possesses a mere .152 BA, .152 SLG and .165 wOBA.
New York Yankees
Gil is currently the odds-on favorite to win the AL Rookie of the Year, and for great reason. He is 9-1 through 14 starts with a commanding 2.03 ERA and 0.98 WHIP.
His analytics are just as dominant, with the right-hander ranking in the 91st percentile in xERA and 97th percentile in xBA. This success is likely to continue against Baltimore, a team Gil is 2-0 against in his career with a flawless 0.00 ERA and 0.65 WHIP.
New York won each of those two outings by at least a two-run differential. Following Gil is a trustworthy bullpen that ranks in the top half of the league in both ERA and FIP.
This pitching staff is likely to receive an abundance of run support. Sporting one of the best lineups in baseball, the Yankees rank in the top three of the league in runs scored per game, OBP, SLG, OPS and home runs.
That success is likely to continue against Irvin, a pitcher whom New York boasts a .310 BA, .524 SLG and .389 wOBA against through 49 combined career plate appearances.
Orioles vs. Yankees
Betting Pick & Prediction
Both of these lineups are among the top four in baseball, so there really is no advantage there for either side. However, New York's track record against Irvin is far stronger than Baltimore's against Gil.
Speaking of the pitching matchup, that advantage clearly goes to Gil. The rookie outranks Irvin in ERA, WHIP, xERA, xBA, average exit velocity, barrel rate and hard-hit rate.
When you add in the Yankees' home-field advantage, I think that there is more value on their run line at +145 rather than laying -135 on the moneyline.
