Padres vs. Brewers Odds
| Padres Odds | +125 |
| Brewers Odds | -155 |
| Over/Under | 6.5 (-120/+100) |
| Time | 8:10 p.m. ET |
| TV | MLB.TV |
| Odds via BetMGM. Get up-to-the-minute MLB odds here. | |
Padres closer Taylor Rogers had a colossal meltdown on Thursday night as he blew a 4-1 lead against the Brewers in the ninth inning. Rogers followed up a leadoff single to Keston Hiura by hitting two batters to load up the bases. Jace Peterson then hit a bases-clearing triple before Andrew McCutchen sent everyone home with a walk-off single.
Next up for the Padres is Brewers ace, Corbin Burnes. San Diego will counter with Joe Musgrove, who is perfect at 5-0 on the year.
Given the quality of both pitchers in this matchup, it's no surprise that the total has already moved down by a half-run on the betting board. However, even with the move, I still think there's a solid argument to make here with the under.
Musgrove Masterful For Padres
The decision to return to the area where he grew up could pay off handsomely for Musgrove when he becomes an unrestricted free agent at the end of the year.
His first season with the Padres was his best in the majors as he not only went 11-9 with a 3.18 ERA, but he also threw the first-ever no-hitter in the franchise's history. This year, he's been even better as he's yet to lose a decision, and the Padres have just one loss with him on the mound.
In nine starts, Musgrove has a 1.86 ERA with a 0.98 WHIP. He's shown excellent command, as evidenced by a 1.71 BB/9 ratio. His ability to limit walks is even more impressive, considering he throws six different pitches with a 7% or higher usage rate. Hitters are rarely comfortable against him because there are just too many pitches to have to eliminate inside the batter's box.
Another thing that's somewhat unconventional about Musgrove is he likes to pitch backward. According to Baseball Savant, he throws his slider (30.3%) more than any other pitch in his arsenal, and it has an impressive whiff rate of 40.9%.
To get an idea of how dominant Musgrove has been, he's managed to be very successful despite a career-low of just 41.7% of his pitches thrown inside the strike zone.
Does San Diego's Bats Have A Shot At Burnes?
While Burnes might not have an unblemished record like Musgrove, one could argue he's been just as if not more effective. The Brewers ace is 3-2 with a 1.95 ERA and a 0.82 WHIP.
However, like his counterpart, Burnes also has an assortment of pitches in his arsenal. He throws a cutter (55.6%), curveball (19.9%), slider (9.8%), sinker (7.6%) and changeup (7.1%). Thus, it's likely that opposing hitters will also struggle to eliminate some of his pitches when they step inside the batter's box.
If we look at the batter vs. pitcher splits, this matchup does seem to favor Burnes because of the dominance of his cutter. I suspect the Padres will get a heavy dose of the cutter, especially since FanGraphs ranks them 28th with a 7.6 below-average run value when facing the pitch.
Moreover, this current Padres lineup has struggled against Burnes. In 65 plate appearances, they have a .167 BA with a .177 xBA and a .219 xSLG.
Ten days ago, Burnes limited the Padres to five hits in six innings of a 4-1 victory. Only 25% of San Diego's batted balls qualified as hard hits, and I don't foresee much of an improvement given the current form that Burnes is in at the moment. Eight of his last nine outings have been quality starts, and he's allowed just one run in his previous 13 innings of work.
Padres-Brewers Pick
Although my model has a decent edge on the Padres, I think the under is the way to go in this matchup. According to GimmeTheDog.com, the total is 101-86-5 to the under when a team blows a lead of three or more runs after eight innings. Moreover, this angle is currently on a 4-0 run.
The logic is pretty straightforward here in that we should at least expect the losing team to be even more dialed in defensively after such a disappointing letdown.
Another factor to consider is that the total is 9-6-1 to the under when Burnes pitches with an opening total of 7 or fewer runs. And when the total closes at 6.5, the total is 6-1 to the under for 4.71 units.
I was on the wrong side of the Padres' debacle Thursday, so I'm going to buy a little insurance with my play on the under. Instead of grabbing it at 6.5, I'll look to play an alternate total of under 7/-130 at BetMGM.
Pick: Under 7 (-130)
