Padres vs. Mets Odds
| Padres Odds | +105 |
| Mets Odds | -130 |
| Over/Under | 8 (-105/-115) |
| Time | 7:08 p.m. ET |
| TV | ESPN |
| Odds via BetMGM. Get up-to-the-minute MLB odds here. | |
While the New York Mets still hold a half-game lead in the National League East Division entering Sunday's action, the San Diego Padres hold one of the National League wild-card spots if the season ended at this moment.
These are certainly teams with the potential to meet down the road when it's important in the playoffs. That said, I've laid out three plays for a multi-leg parlay at big odds ahead of this showdown.
The Parlay (+600):
- Padres Moneyline
- Joe Musgrove — 6+ Strikeouts
- Jurickson Profar — 2+ total bases
Same-Game Parlay: Padres vs. Mets
Padres Moneyline
While the Mets are the clear favorite at -125, the model I use actually prefers the Padres slightly in this game, making them a screaming value at +105 moneyline odds.
The Padres are on the road, which might seem like a concern, but San Diego has a 29-21 record away from home this year. San Diego has the advantage at starting pitcher in this game as Musgrove has a 2.42 ERA going up against Carlos Carrasco, who has a 4.09 xFIP this season.
Joe Musgrove — 6+ Strikeouts
Musgrove is yet to face the Mets this season, but he's been a consistently good strikeout pitcher this year as he ranks 18th in all of baseball among qualified starters with a 24% strikeout percentage.
The Mets lineup isn't a strikeout heavy lineup as the combined projected lineup for New York has just a 19% K% this year. Still, Musgrove has hit this number in 12 of his 16 starts this season.
Sandy Alcantara is having an absolutely fantastic season, but it's no surprise Musgrove is also among the leading contenders for the National League Cy Young award this season.
Jurickson Profar — 2+ Total Bases
Profar isn't the best hitter on the Padres, but he's left-handed and that gives him the platoon advantage against Carlos Carrasco, who has allowed a .188 ISO to left-handed hitters this year.
Profar has a .164 ISO and more importantly a 25% line drive percentage (which leads the Padres) against right-handed pitching this year. Carrasco's K% goes up to 26% against left-handed batters, but Profar also has a 17% strikeout percentage against right-handed pitching, which is one of the lower marks.
He also takes his at-bats out of the leadoff spot regularly, which could get him an extra at-bat late in the game. Profar has a .625 average and one home run in eight career at-bats against Carrasco.
