Phillies vs. Brewers Odds
| Phillies Odds | -105 |
| Brewers Odds | -115 |
| Over/Under | 8.5 (-115 / -105) |
| Time | 8:10 p.m. ET |
| TV | MLB.TV |
| Odds via BetMGM. Get up-to-the-minute MLB odds here. | |
Fresh off a sweep of the Los Angeles Angels, the Philadelphia Phillies head to Milwaukee for a three-game series with the Brewers.
Milwaukee has lost three straight games and sends Jason Alexander to the mound on Tuesday night. The Phillies match with Ranger Suarez, who has struggled in 2022.
Can the Phillies continue to roll in the post-Joe Girardi era, or will the Brewers bounce back at home?
Philadelphia Phillies
Ranger Suarez was lights-out last season, but it was only a matter of time before he fell back down to Earth. Opponents have seen the southpaw well this year, to the tune of a .272 xBA and .450 xSLG.
While Suarez's velocity remains the same, his barrel rate is up more than 5%, and his control has lacked at times. His numbers have dipped since becoming a full-time starter, but Suarez still ranks inside the top 20th percentile in hard-hit rate and average exit velocity.
Suarez faced Milwaukee once earlier this season, throwing 4 2/3 innings of one-run ball. It was his best home start this year. Generally, Suarez has pitched much better on the road (4.03 ERA) as opposed to Citizens Bank Park (5.26 ERA).
The same may be said for the Phillies offense, which actually hit better away from home. Philadelphia has outscored opponents 26-9 and has won all three games since Girardi was relieved of his duties.
Moreover, the Phillies rank fourth in wRC+, third in wOBA and third in isolated power during the month of June. It's a small sample size, but something to monitor with Girardi no longer in the dugout.
Milwaukee Brewers
Jason Alexander was called up to replace an injured Brandon Woodruff in the rotation and dazzled in his MLB debut, throwing seven innings of two-run ball last week against the Chicago Cubs.
The 29-year old's minor-league success has been inconsistent. Alexander boasts a 2.64 ERA in 47 2/3 innings this season, but he also reports a career 5.60 ERA at the Triple-A level.
Alexander missed the 2020 season and the majority of the following year because of a finger injury. He signed with Milwaukee and has been much better, limiting his walk rate and forcing ground balls more than 60% of the time.
Alexander primarily relies on his sinker — he threw it 58.8% of the time in his debut — pairing it with a slider and changeup.
It's also important to note that the Brewers offense struggles significantly more against left-handed pitching. While they've been better than last season, the splits are drastic. The Brewers have a slash line of .210/.293/.347 against southpaws versus a .239/.313/.420 boost against right-handers.
They are also significantly shorthanded, with both Willy Adames and Hunter Renfroe on the 10-day injured list. Omar Narvaez is out on the COVID-19 injured list, too, and Luis Urias is day-to-day with a thumb injury.
To put it lightly, manager Craig Counsell doesn't have much leeway when it comes to setting his lineup for Tuesday night's game.
Phillies-Brewers Pick
This is an interesting matchup, particularly because there's not much to work off of when it comes to the 29-year-old Alexander.
He was solid in his major league debut, but I'm hesitant to back him to replicate that success against a Phillies team that's in a groove. His minor league numbers are also somewhat alarming: I know his struggles were primarily pre-finger injury, but the majors are a different breed.
Tack on the fact that the Brewers have multiple key bats injured — and they already struggle a lot more against left-handed pitching — and I think the Phillies hold the edge on Tuesday night.
I'm not confident enough to back the Phillies moneyline due to the team's bullpen issues. Furthermore, Milwaukee has some of the best arms on the backend. Therefore, Philadelphia is worth a play over the first five.
Back the Phillies to get the job done behind Suarez in the first half, continuing to roll in the post-Girardi era.
Pick: Phillies F5 ML (-112, up to -120)
